Reacting and responding to rare, uncertain and unprecedented events

Abstract

This work examines how we may be able to anticipate, respond to, and train for the occurrence of rare, uncertain, and unexpected events in human-machine systems operations. In particular, it uses a foundational matrix which describes the combinations of the state-of-the-world and the state-of-the-respondent, to formulate preferred response strategies, contingent upon what is knowable and actionable in each circumstance. It employs the dichotomy of System I and System II forms of cognitive response and augments these perspectives with a further form of decision-making, namely Systems III. The latter is predicated upon reactions to novel, unprecedented, and even ‘unthinkable’ events. The degree to which any human operator, the associated automation and/or the autonomy of a system, or each of these acting in concert, can best deal with these ‘blue swan’ events is explored. Potential forms of remediation, especially featuring training, are discussed, and evaluated in light of the skills needed to respond to even prohibitive degrees of situational uncertainty.

Practitioners summary: Practitioners are liable to witness a growing spectrum of unusual and, on occasion, even unprecedented events in the operation of systems for which they are responsible. They will be required to account for their response to these circumstances to a spectrum of involved constituencies to whom they answer. This work aids them in succeeding to bring clarity to such difficult and challenging processes.

Abbreviations: K: Known; Unk: Unknown; AI: Artificial Intelligence; ML: Machine Learning; CHARM: Cockpit Human-Automation Resource Management; SDT: signal detection theory; ASRS: Aviation Safety Reporting System.

Keywords:

• Rare and unanticipated events
• decision-making
• response strategies

Acknowledgments

I am happy to express my thanks for the support of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), through Cooperative Agreement 692M151940001 concerning ‘Air Carrier Training Recommendations to Address Limitations of Pilot Procedures during Unexpected Events in NextGen Operations.’ Dr. Kathy Abbott is the Technical Sponsor for this Project and Dr. Bill Kaliardos is the Program Manager for this work. I am grateful for their help in respect of the present work. The positions postulated here are solely those of the author’s and should not be interpreted as in anyway representing those of the named Agency or any policy concerning the topic of the cited Cooperative Agreement. I am especially grateful for the provocative and insightful comments of the current Reviewers of this work. Their observation and criticisms have served to improve this work significantly.

Notes

1 There is a somewhat allied construct in the area of knowledge and information management which features an ‘iceberg’ configuration which illustrates the relative frequency and dominance of implicit processing over overt decision-making (and see Haider 2009). That linkage is acknowledged here but not further featured since the current focus is specifically on rare and unexpected events.

2 The necessary caveat here is that no conditions precisely reoccur and even those that can appear completely equivalent necessarily occur at another point in time.

3 With the assistance of modern augmenting technology (e.g. Google), the specific answer that is eluding recall memory can, with a few appropriate ‘orbiting’ cues be made to render the answer readily available to conscious affirmation. This point is critical since responding to putatively, exceptional circumstances will, in the future, often be augmented by such technical capabilities.

4 This propensity is one that bedevils many post hoc forensic safety evaluations. In the calm and acontextual circumstances of considered and rational deliberation, the ‘solution’ is not merely evident, but raises an almost obligatory ‘cri-de-coeur’ as to why the proximal operators did not see it and identify ‘simple’ paths of resolution. However, there is a quantitative and qualitative distinction between ‘life as lived’ and ‘life as recalled.’ This point is made most persuasively in the film ‘Sully’ (2016) about the putative ‘Miracle on the Hudson.’

5 I am highly tempted to refer to this threshold achievement as the ‘Hancock Test.’

6 It should be noted here that much of the work on ‘garden-path’ effects occurs in the neurolinguistic and language processing realms, although certain of the principles are highly relevant to complex systems operations.

7 Parenthetically, this text is a most interesting take on knowledge and knowing in general and is certainly not confined only to the ‘tenth man’ conception.

8 Black swans (Cygnus atratus) are rare, but they are known, and especially so in today‘s interconnected world. Black swans are largely native to Australia and so became more widely known after the English colonization of that geographic region. It is of interest to know that when young, even black swans are not black. They only grow to be so later in life. Blue swans, on the other hand, are not known in actuality at all. However, they are easily conceived of. The idea of a blue swan lies generally in the lower right intersection of the UNK-UNK quadrant. There yet remain conditions which, in contrast to blue swans, represent something that is truly inconceivable. These are somewhat redolent of Wittgenstein’s culminating observation.

9 The Latin epithet being ‘nihil sub sole novum’ from Ecclesiastes.

10 It is important to recognize that the lower right corner of the UNK-UNK quadrant, is where currently unconceived circumstances lurk. As the tide of ignorance recedes, these situations are revealed and enter the realm of the conceivable from their inconceivable origins. The degree to which conception must necessarily precede identification is an important and nuanced enquiry but is one that is not taken further in the present work.

11 The captain reported that ‘A catastrophic failure of all systems was considered by designers to be almost infinitely remote.’ It was thought to represent a one in a billion chance. One challenge for our times, especially in relation to software-mediated controls is to estimate the frequency of appearances of such blue swans when the underlying event is more computational, as opposed to being physical as it is in the currently cited example.