Natural resource base as predictor of town growth and development potential in Western Cape Province

ABSTRACT

In a recent study, the growth potential of 131 individual towns in the Western Cape Province (Van der Merwe et al., 2005) was qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated through the use of a balanced set of multi-dimensional criteria that accounts for the diversity and complexity of urban growth dynamics during town development¹. A set of 82 variables was identified for which information could be obtained for each of the towns. One of the several outcomes of this extensive study was to index, rank and categorise the towns according to their development potential. The spatial pattern of the composite development index of the towns shows that those with high potential are more prevalent near the Cape Town metropolis and along the west and south coasts. The interior of the province is not well endowed with high-potential towns. Against this background, the authors argue that although the outcome of the research was based on 82 variables covering a broad spectrum of development indicators, the group of natural resource indicators on their own (as measured by the availability of developable land, availability of water, agricultural potential, natural and cultural tourist attractions and environmental sensitivity) may be applied as a more concise surrogate instrument for evaluating growth and development potential. In making this comparison the aim was to indicate the importance of the natural resource base in the economic development of a predominantly semi-arid region. However, the final statistical evidence suggests that natural-resource-based indicators for town growth and development potential cannot be recommended — even in semi-arid environments.