Influence of candidate qualities and previous president performance in voting intentions

Abstract

This article aims to measure empirically the influence of the main variables affecting the voting intention of the electorate, taking as reference the polls result obtained in the previous months of the 2008 American General Elections, which are provided by the American National Election Studies. Our research is an approach to political marketing with causal methodology, for that purpose structural equation methodology is used, confirming some concepts such as the personalization of politics, main pillar of the current political marketing strategies and the retrospective voting.

Keywords:

• political marketing
• voting intention
• forecasting
• structural equation modelling methodology

2010 AMS Mathematics Subject Classifications::

• 62H12
• 91C05