Abstract
This paper examines the modelling and computational issues of a framework for representing uncertain inflows in river systems using the polynomial chaos approach. Ensemble forecasts are used to construct a Karhunen–Loève expansion of random inflows. The statistics of the stochastic outflow of the system are computed using stochastic collocation. The dynamics of the river system are efficiently simulated using the performance graphs approach.
Acknowledgements
This research was supported in part by the Bonneville Power Administration through the Technology Innovation Program, grant number TIP-258. The authors would like to thank an anonymous referee for many constructive suggestions.