A novel radial basis procedure for the SIRC epidemic delay differential model

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to construct a reliable stochastic framework for solving the SIRC delay differential epidemic system, i.e. SIRC-DDES that is based on the coronavirus dynamics. The design of radial basis (RB) transfer function with the optimization of Bayesian regularization neural network (RB-BRNN) is presented to solve the SIRC-DDES. The SIRC-DDES is classified into susceptible $S(x)$, infected $I(x)$, recovered $R(x)$ and cross-immune $C(x)$. The exactness of the RB-BRNN is performed for three cases of SIRC-DDES by using the performances of the obtained and reference results. The mean square error is reduced by using the training, testing and substantiation performances with the reference solutions. The small values of the absolute error around 10⁻⁰⁷ to 10⁻⁰⁸ and different statistical operator performances based on the error histogram values, transitions of state investigations, correlation and regression tests also approve the accuracy of the proposed technique.

KEYWORDS:

• Radial basis
• epidemic
• Bayesian regularization
• nonlinear model
• neural networks

Mathematic Subject classification:

Acknowledgement

The Deanship of Scientific Research (DSR) at King Abdulaziz University (KAU), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, has funded this project, under grant no. (KEP-MSc: 65-130-1443).

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analysed in this study.

Additional information

Funding

The Deanship of Scientific Research (DSR) at King Abdulaziz University (KAU), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia has funded this project, under grant no. (KEP-MSc: 65-130-1443).