Mathematical modelling of frailty, dependency and mortality in a 70-year-old general population

Abstract

Due to the ageing of the world population, a better functional capacity for the elderly is needed. Hence the importance of detecting people at risk of frailty, dependence and death to fulfil an individualized approach. There are models that uses frailty indices, but none that use the Frail-VIG Index, based on the comprehensive geriatric assessment. Three predictive models of frailty, dependency and mortality for 70-year-old in the general population are presented. The risk factors for developing frailty or dependency are female gender, chronicity level 2 or 3, and marriage. For mortality, the risk factors are male gender, low educational level and being frail according to frail-VIG index. In conclusion, the health actions to prevent frailty and dependence should focus on reducing the chronicity level, especially in women. To delay mortality, an individualized approach should be implemented in frail people. Further studies are needed to determine other health and social risk factors.

Keywords:

• Prognostic factors
• frailty
• dependence
• mortality
• survival analysis
• nomogram
• prediction model

2020 Mathematics Subject Classification:

• 62N02

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).