Stochastic model predictive control-based countermeasure methodology for satellites against indirect kinetic cyber-attacks

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to provide a stochastic framework to optimally avoid collision between a maneuverable spacecraft and a space object or debris. The satellite collision can be caused through a cyber-attack on a satellite by colliding it with a considered strategic satellite. Consequently, it is highly imperative that critical operational space assets be provided with autonomous collision avoidance systems. The collision avoidance methodology proposed in this paper will reduce the collision probability to an acceptable level and protect the satellite against indirect kinetic cyber-attacks initiated by designing optimal collision avoidance maneuvers using a stochastic model predictive control strategy. The collision probability is estimated using the available historical Two-Line Elements of determined objects, and the model predictive control scheme guarantees the safety of the space close approaches. The proposed and developed collision-avoidance countermeasure methodology is numerically simulated for the collision case study between the Iridium-33 and the Cosmos-2251 satellites. The results demonstrate and illustrate the effectiveness, capabilities, and advantages of our proposed methodology in avoiding probable collisions due to indirect kinetic cyber-attacks.

KEYWORDS:

• Collision avoidance maneuver
• indirect kinetic cyber-attack
• cyber-attack countermeasure
• model predictive control
• stochastic model predictive control

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada: [Grant Number Discovery Grant/DnD Supplemental].