Seasonal rainfall forecasting for Africa part II—application and impact assessment

Abstract

An experimental seasonal rainfall forecast for the African Sahel as a whole has been issued by the UK Meteorological Office for each year since 1986. The scientific aspects of the forecast, including its current and possible future status, have been discussed in Part I of this paper. Here, we examine how the forecast might be applied, and assess the impacts it may have on potential users in Africa. Five groups of users of the rainfall forecasts are identified: hydrological forecasters, crop production modellers, international food aid agencies, national public and para‐statal institutions, and local rural communities. The different decision‐making processes of each of these user groups, and consequently their differing potential to benefit from forecast information, are discussed in turn. It is suggested that forecasts will have their most immediate use at national and international level, but that improvements in institutional efficiency and interaction will need to be made before the potential benefits of the forecasts can be realised. Rural communities are least likely to obtain direct benefits from the forecast, but potentially there are indirect benefits to such communities if the information is correctly used at other levels.

Key words:

• Africa
• rainfall forecasting
• hydrological forecasting
• crop modelling
• early warning systems
• food security