Risk modelling and assessment for distributed manufacturing system

Abstract

This paper proposes to use a Petri net framework together with simulation technology to model and analyse distributed manufacturing networks. With the distinct modelling features of Petri nets, this study has the ability to identify and evaluate the potential quality risks in distributed manufacturing systems. The risks can be migrated from an upstream to downstream process. The proposed approach involves a qualitative risk analysis methodology which integrates risk identification, analysis and mitigation actions to evaluate distributed system risks. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to model risk parameters and realise how the mitigation process can help minimise risk through numerical analysis. Hence, with basic statistical concepts, the key performance variables and the risk factors of distributed manufacturing systems are analysed. In this paper, the detailed components in the proposed workflow are illustrated with a case example to realise the feasibility of application in an industrial environment. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the hypotheses on lead time and relative costs were tested in different scenarios. Overall cost can be reduced and responsiveness can be enhanced after modelling with Petri nets to identify potential risks.

Keywords:

• Petri net
• distributed manufacturing system
• simulation
• risk management
• risk modelling
• risk assessment