Multistage risk assessment of direct delivery business from local oil refineries in Sinopec Group based on normal cloud model

Abstract

This paper studies the risk assessment problem of the direct delivery business from local oil refineries in Sinopec Group. A total of 23 risk factors associated with four segments of the direct delivery business are first identified. Through explaining the respective characteristics, the connotation of each risk factor is analysed in depth. Next, on the basis of the severity and possibility of each risk factor, a multistage risk assessment method for normal cloud model rooted in the extended TOPSIS approach is developed, and then applied to a real-world case. From the investigation, the weaknesses of the present risk assessment process are addressed from various aspects, including the risk factors, segments, and alternatives. Moreover, considering the possible correlation among risk factors, the proposed method is further extended by using the approach of Choquet integral. Additional discussions and recommendations are provided for improving the risk management process of the direct delivery business from local oil refineries.

Keywords:

• risk analysis
• multistage risk assessment
• risk factor
• normal cloud model
• stage weight optimisation model

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 71171112, 71502073, 71601002, 71701098, 71702074]; the Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Ministry of Education of China [grant number 18YJC630249]; The Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics PhD short-term visiting scholar project [grant number 180501DF09]; the Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation [grant number 1708085MG168].