Forecasting spare part extractions from returned systems in a closed-loop supply chain

Abstract

In a closed-loop supply chain, the reuse of spare parts from returned systems is a recovery process referred to as spare parts harvesting. The unpredictability of the parts supply capacity from returned systems is a challenge in healthcare industry as product returns depend on several factors and regulatory and legal requirements must be respected. The focus of this paper is to provide a forecasting method of harvested parts supply capacity in healthcare industry that combines statistical methods with field information and business knowledge to provide an informed forecast. We propose a dynamic forecasting process that gets updated monthly employing TSB-Croston, 12-month moving average, ARIMA, ARIMA with seasonality, and a new business knowledge based model. A prediction method of the inventory state changes is introduced. The forecasters judgment is transformed into validation rules for an automatic forecast adjustment. This method is evaluated on more than 1400 time series with intermittent behaviour representing General Electric Healthcare spare parts harvesting history. We evaluate the performance of our method compared to each tested model using a modified MAPE, MAE, MSE, and RMSE. By means of the designed method, the forecast performance is improved compared to all tested models.

Keywords:

• Healthcare industry
• closed-loop supply chain
• spare parts harvesting
• dynamic forecast
• forecast judgmental adjustment
• intermittent demand

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank our colleagues from the company for their collaboration and helpful discussions.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, E.T, upon reasonable request.

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported by GE HealthCare.

Notes on contributors

Emna Turki

Emna Turki is a project leader at GE HealthCare. She carried out her PhD on spare parts lifecycle management in closed loop supply chains at Laboratoire Génie Industriel, CentraleSupélec - University Paris Saclay and recieved her PhD degree in March 2024. She holds an industrial engineering degree from Ecole Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Tunis. Her research interests are in the healthcare closed-loop supply chain management field.

Oualid Jouini

Oualid Jouini is a full Professor and the head of the Operations Management research group at Laboratoire Génie Industriel, CentraleSupélec - University Paris Saclay. He received a BS degree in Industrial Engineering from Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tunis in 2001 and a master’s degree in industrial engineering from CentraleSupélec in 2003. He carried out his PhD on the optimization of call centers at CentraleSupélec and received a PhD degree in 2006. His research interests are in service operations management and stochastic modeling.

Zied Jemai

Zied Jemai is a professor in Industrial Engineering at the National Engineering School of Tunis where he is the director of the OASIS research lab. He is an associate researcher at CentraleSupelec and the responsible for the research activities of the Supply Chain Chair. After graduating in Industrial Engineering from Ecole Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Tunis in 1998, he obtained a PhD degree in Industrial Engineering from Ecole Centrale Paris in 2003 and a habilitation to direct research (HDR) from INP Grenoble in 2013. His work focuses mainly on supply chain management, flow control, and healthcare management, with a special emphasis on modelling and optimization. He has supervised about 20 PhD students and published more than 50 papers in international journals.

Yazid Traiy

Yazid Traiy is a project leader at GE HealthCare in the Lifecycle Solutions organization. He leads projects to develop the usage of reused parts and extend GEHC’s parts and products life. He holds a Master’s degree in Engineering with a major in performance and risk management from IMT Atlantique.

Adnane Lazrak

Adnane Lazrak is a service materials supply manager. He is currently in charge of projects related to service improvement, forecasting and inventory optimization in GEHC. He holds a PhD on Demand Forecasting and Inventory planning in the case of service parts supply chain. He has a master's degree in industrial engineering from Ecole des Mines de Saint-Etienne and an engineer's degree in industrial and production management from Ecole Nationale Supérieure d'Arts et Métiers. He is particularly interested in research works around these topics and their applications in industrial area.

Patrick Valot

Patrick Valot is a regional growth programs Manager at GEHC. He holds a master's degree from Institut d'Administration des Entreprise Besançon. A bachelor's degree and a master's degree in mechanical and production engineering from Université de Versaille Saint Quentin-en-Yveline.

Robert Heidseick

Robert Heidsieck is a lecturer at IMT Atlantique and Centralesupélec on system engineering, reliability case studies and supply chain management in master engineering. He is Lifecycle Solutions Product Circularity Director at GE HealthCare. He holds a master degree in mathematics from Université de Reims Champagne-Adrenne, a master degree of engineering in computer science/image processing from Télécom Paris, and a master of business administration in corporate strategy and international business management from ESCP business school. His research interests are in supply chain management and circular economy.