The prediction of asphalt pavement permanent deformation by T-GM(1,2) dynamic model

Abstract

In this article, we propose a prediction model of asphalt pavement permanent deformation based on improved grey prediction model. This improved prediction model combines the first-order two variables grey differential equation model (abbreviated as GM(1,2) model) from grey system theory and Taylor approximation method from approximation optimisation theory. We abbreviate the combined model as T-GM(1,2) model. The combined model can obtain the most optimal predicted value by multiple approximate calculation. We validated the effectiveness of T-GM(1,2) model, through using the measured data of deformation depth obtained from the wheel tracking device test. The experimental result showed that the T-GM(1,2) model has high predictable power for asphalt pavement permanent deformation.

Keywords:

• pavement management system
• pavement permanent deformation
• grey system theory
• grey dynamic model
• Taylor approximation method
• optimisation method