Where could Centris nigrescens (Hymenoptera: Apidae) go under climate change?

Abstract

Climate change (CC) is an important driver affecting pollination and pollinators. This paper aims to provide an updated potential distribution for Centris nigrescens Lepeletier, 1841, and infer CC effects upon it. We used ten modeling methods to infer the potential distribution of C. nigrescens. We measured the extent of species’ suitable area (SSA) that is and maybe within protected areas and biogeographical provinces in both current and future scenarios. C. nigrescens seems to be restricted to the Tropical Region in the Americas. Geographical barriers affecting the species’ distribution are the Andean Cordillera and the Caribbean Sea. We recorded the species for the first time in Panama. In the future, SSA is expected to increase about 36% but with a partial reduction in both Amazon forest and South American savannas. Also, the SSA’ within protected areas would decrease by 1.3%. Considering the species’ range shifts under CC, it will be important to explore if the fragmentation of the suitable areas of the species’ range pattern in both Amazon forest and South American savannas will be the same as for other oil-collecting bees. It will also be essential to explore possible consequences on oil-producing plants' pollination in those areas.

Keywords:

• Centridini
• distribution range
• Hemisiella
• Tropical Region
• oil-collecting bees
• oil-flower plants

Acknowledgements

We thank Gerome Rozen and Corey Smith (AMNH), Eduardo Almeida (RPSP), Fernando Silveira (DZMG), Marcio Oliveira (INPA), Patricia Albuquerque (UFMA), Agnièle Touret-Alby (MNHP), Paula Sepulveda (CBUMAG), Orlando Silveira (MPEG) and Francisco Serna (UNAB), for making available the specimens under their care. We also thank the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) for providing a PhD scholarship to Danny Vélez (Proc. number: 88887.497346/2020-00). Daniel Paiva Silva received a productivity grant from Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento científico e tecnológico (CNPq – Proc. number: 304494/2019-4). This work is developed in the context of National Institute for Science and Technology (INCT) in Ecology, Evolution and Biodiversity Conservation, supported by MCTIC/CNPq (proc. number 465610/2014-5) and FAPEG (proc. number 201810267000023). This paper is part of the SIGMA project N°21565 MN/UFRJ and the contribution number 58 from the HYMN. This work is registered at Sistema Nacional de Gestão do Patrimônio Genético e do Conhecimento Tradicional Associado under the code AC315BC.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.