https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6906-9418
![Sample our Global Development journals, sign in here to start your access, latest two full volumes FREE to you for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5929/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Global-Development.jpg"})
Abstract
The children affected by the Syrian conflict, including the large population of Syrian refugee children hosted in neighboring countries, are at risk of becoming a ‘lost generation’ due to interruptions in their schooling. This paper examines how educational outcomes of Syrian refugees in Jordan have evolved from pre-conflict to during conflict and displacement. We rely on nationally representative survey data from Jordan in 2016 and in-depth interviews with Syrian refugee youth. We use discrete-time hazard models and compare dropout pre-conflict, during the conflict, and during displacement for different stages of schooling. Syrian refugees in Jordan faced disrupted schooling in Syria due to the conflict, followed by several multidimensional supply- and demand-side barriers to education in Jordan. Yet ultimately enrollment rates, at least through 2016, have recovered to pre-conflict levels for basic education among the group of Syrians in Jordan, with important lessons for other countries struggling to protect refugee children’s education. Host countries’ policy response to refugee education plays a critical role in whether and for how long refugee children resume schooling after displacement.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Data availability statement
Quantitative (survey) JLMPS 2016 data are publicly available from the Economic Research Forum Open Access Microdata Initiative at: http://www.erfdataportal.com/index.php/catalog/139
The PAPFAM 2009 data are available on request from the Pan Arab Project for Family Health.
Replication materials, in the form of STATA do files, will be provided at: www.carolinekrafft.com/publications.
Qualitative data cannot be shared due to ethical review restrictions.
Notes
1 In this paper we treat “Syrians” as synonymous with “Syrian refugees.” The percentage of Syrians in Jordan that are currently registered as a refugee and arrived in Jordan in 2011 or later or left a previous residence in 2011 or later due to violence, persecution, or lack of security is 93 per cent (Krafft, Sieverding, Salemi, & Keo, Citation2019).
2 For more information on the PAPFAM 2009, see PAPFAM (Citation2011). For more information on the JLMPS 2016, see Krafft and Assaad (Citation2021).
3 Although retrospective questions may be subject to bias, among the Jordanians of age for our analysis sample who ever attended school, 75 per cent report starting grade one of basic the year they turned six and 96 per cent report starting grade one of basic the year they turned six or seven, suggesting relatively accurate recall.
4 See the retrospective questions section in the supplementary online material for the exact questions and details.
5 Too few Syrians in Jordan progressed to higher education to analyze beyond grade 12.
6 In addition to refugees being from areas that were particularly affected by conflict, the adult Syrian refugee population in Jordan is less educated than the national population in Syria pre-conflict (Sieverding & Calderón-Mejía, Citation2020), which may affect demand for education among refugees due to intergenerational persistence in educational attainment. Other differences between the Syrian refugees who fled to Jordan and the national population of Syrians (which existed pre-conflict) may also be pertinent to educational outcomes, including higher poverty, higher fertility, and earlier marriage (Sieverding et al., Citation2019; Sieverding & Calderón-Mejía, Citation2020; Verme et al., Citation2016). Other research suggests that differences between adolescent Syrian refugees in Jordan and Jordanians in school enrollment are almost entirely explained by differences in socio-economic status between the two groups (Krafft, Assaad, & Pastoor, 2021).
7 When including delayed students in gross enrollment ratios, secondary enrollment rates have come closer to recovering (Sieverding et. al, Citation2018).
8 Figure A1, in the supplementary online material, presents a descriptive analysis of school persistence and exit by cohort, the results of which are consistent with the multivariate findings.
9 Estimating a model with time-varying country of residence corroborates that the hazard of exit was (insignificantly) lower in years when individuals were in Jordan compared to Syria.
10 We tested whether there were differential effects of the time trends and time trends interacted with grade by sex; there were not significant differences.
11 Since the model includes both main effects and interactions between time and grade segment, the marginal effects (predicted hazards, shown in the figure) of different combinations were tested for equivalence.
12 See Sieverding et. al (Citation2018) for an examination of interruptions and re-enrollment, as well as age-for-grade and grade repetition. Syrians in Jordan were slightly older than their expected grade at some points in their trajectory, especially during latter basic and secondary, but did not repeat grades. A substantial fraction of Syrians in Jordan experienced interruptions of six months or more in their schooling, but often re-enrolled successfully after arrival to Jordan.
13 For instance, estimates among Syrian refugees aged five and older in 2014 show 7 per cent of Syrian refugees in Lebanon had no education compared to 11 per cent of Syrian refugees in Jordan; 22 per cent in Lebanon and 20 per cent in Syria had first stage primary; 54 per cent in Lebanon and 52 per cent in Jordan had second stage primary, 8 per cent in Lebanon and 11 per cent in Jordan had secondary attainment, and 5 per cent in Lebanon and Jordan had university or above attainment (Verme et al., Citation2016).