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Abstract
Temporal stability of a simple recreation demand model specified in terms of distance and population is tested using a census of paddle canoe-camping trips to the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW) for 1974–77, 1980, and 1981. The effect of population is stable over time, but the distance elasticity of demand changes, possibly indicating change in consumer tastes and preferences. The distribution of trips among origins is robust, and parameters based on 1974–77 data forecast 1980 and 1981 data as well as the 1980 and 1981 parameters. Increases in the overall level of participation cannot be explained by the model or by changes in its exogenous variables. Plausible causes of change, including specification error, are discussed and directions for future research are recommended.