A Choice Model of Occupational Status and Fertility

Abstract

We use a few assumptions based on evolutionary reasoning to create a simple mathematical model of the relationships between a person's background status, investment in personal occupational status, personal occupational status, and fertility. The model generates seven predictions concerning these relationships and how they differ for men and women. For example, it predicts that background status will have a greater effect on personal occupational status for men than for women. We test these predictions empirically and find them mostly supported. This study shows, therefore, the promise of both formal theory and evolutionary reasoning for understanding these fundamental human social phenomena.

Keywords:

• demography
• mathematical modeling
• status attainment

Notes

¹We do not assume that individuals make decisions atomistically. It may be true, moreover, that fertility decisions have frequently been collective decisions of couples or families (Kaplan and Lancaster, 2003). Nevertheless, such collective decisions necessarily entail individual choices as well, and individual preferences will affect the collective decisions. If the collectivity is solid enough, it may also be possible to model status and fertility with the collectivities rather than individuals as the choosing units (see Whitmeyer, 1994).

² Ideal means that this is what a person would choose given unlimited time, money, other resources, and so forth. Because these things are always limited in fact, the model never predicts maximum fertility.

³We need not assume that investment in status and fertility are mutually exclusive for women. We assume that the tradeoff is greater for women than men and scale λ and I so that λ has a maximum of 1.

Note. Sample sizes are in parentheses.