Sense and sensibility: using a model to examine the relationship between public pre-school places and fertility

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a stochastic dynamic mathematical model, in which a Family Policy Index (XFPI) is included to measure and compare two different models of provision of resources to support families with children from 0 to 3 years old. The main variables in this model are the XFPI, fertility, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. This mathematical model was validated in two different countries, Spain and Norway, during the 2007–2015 period. A sensitivity analysis was applied to simulate the future trend (2016–2030), examining the influence of providing public pre-school services (0 to 3 years) on (XISF). The results obtained show that these services may indeed have an influence on fertility rates, as long as they are developed extensively.

KEYWORDS:

• Public childcare service
• fertility
• XFPI
• Spain
• Norway
• family policies
• demography
• dynamic mathematical model

Supplementary Material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here.

Notes

¹ The specific nomenclature used in this model is explained in detail in Annex I.

² in Norway the public services coexist with privately subsidized childcare centers, but they are assimilated to public provisions in regards of price and services.

³ Employment rates. Labour Force Survey Series:EU_MAIN_TREE.data.popul.labour.employ.lfsa.lfsa_emprt’. Data extracted on May 25, 2018.

⁴ Idem.

⁵ Fertility indicators: (demo_find): data extracted on May 25, 2018.