Scale of Unpredictability Beliefs: Reliability and Validity

ABSTRACT

Experiencing unpredictability in the environment has a variety of negative outcomes. However, these are difficult to ascertain due to the lack of a psychometrically sound measure of unpredictability beliefs. This article summarizes the development of the Scale of Unpredictability Beliefs (SUB), which assesses perceptions about unpredictability in one's life, in other people, and in the world. In Study I, college students (N = 305) responded to 68 potential items as well as other scales. Exploratory factor analysis yielded three internally consistent subscales (Self, People, and World; 16 items total). Higher SUB scores correlated with more childhood family unpredictability, greater likelihood of parental alcohol abuse, stronger causal uncertainty, and lower self-efficacy. In Study II, a confirmatory factor analysis supported the three-factor solution (N = 186 college students). SUB scores correlated with personality, childhood family unpredictability, and control beliefs. In most instances the SUB predicted family unpredictability and control beliefs beyond existing unpredictability measures. Study III confirmed the factor structure and replicated family unpredictability associations in an adult sample (N = 483). This article provides preliminary support for this new multi-dimensional, self-report assessment of unpredictability beliefs, and ideas for future research are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• Beliefs
• inconsistency
• unpredictability
• uncertainty

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Jennifer McDuff, Stacie Wynne, Nathan Wills, Caitlyn Hood, Joanna Wensing, and Jen Wright for assistance with data collection and entry and Thomas Ross for assistance with manuscript preparation.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Lisa Thomson Ross

Lisa Thomson Ross is a Professor of Psychology and Women's and Gender Studies at the College of Charleston. Her current research interests are family unpredictability, unpredictability beliefs, and mental health. Secondary research areas concern common struggles of college students, including alcohol misuse, sexual issues, eating disorders, and risk-taking behaviors.

Stephen D. Short

Stephen D. Short is an Assistant Professor of Psychology at the College of Charleston. His research interests include scale development, measurement invariance, latent variable modeling, and individual differences in attitudes toward science.

Marina Garofano

Marina Garofano is a student completing her Master's degree in Clinical Social Work at Boston University. Her research interests include the roles that trauma and family chaos have on mental illnesses.