Fertility in Kenya and Uganda: A comparative study of trends and determinants

Abstract

Between 1980 and 2000 total fertility in Kenya fell by about 40 per cent, from some eight births per woman to around five. During the same period, fertility in Uganda declined by less than 10 per cent. An analysis of the proximate determinants shows that the difference was due primarily to greater contraceptive use in Kenya, though in Uganda there was also a reduction in pathological sterility. The Demographic and Health Surveys show that women in Kenya wanted fewer children than those in Uganda, but that in Uganda there was also a greater unmet need for contraception. We suggest that these differences may be attributed, in part at least, first, to the divergent paths of economic development followed by the two countries after Independence; and, second, to the Kenya Government's active promotion of family planning through the health services, which the Uganda Government did not promote until 1995.

Keywords:

• fertility decline
• Kenya
• Uganda
• contraceptive use

Notes

1. John Blacker and Andy Sloggett are at the Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 49–51 Bedford Square, London WC1B 3DP, UK. E-mail: [email protected]. Collins Opiyo is at the Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Finance and Planning, Nairobi, Kenya. Momodou Jasseh is at the Medical Research Council, Farafenni, The Gambia. John Ssekamatte-Ssebuliba is at Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.

2. The sources of census and survey data used for this paper have been included in the references. For Kenya censuses and surveys, see items beginning Central Bureau of Statistics and National Council of Population and Development. For Uganda censuses and surveys, see items beginning Ministry of Health and Statistics Branch/Department/Division and Uganda Bureau of Statistics.

3. We wish to thank the Uganda Bureau of Statistics for supplying the data from the 2002 census, and Dr Brian Mugabi for his advice on the level of abortion in Uganda. We are also indebted to Emma Slaymaker for assistance in the construction of the graphs, and to the following for reading the paper in draft and making valuable suggestions: John Cleland, Ken Hill, Griff Feeney, Brent Wolff, and Jimmy Whitworth.