Fertility decline in industrial America: An analysis of the Pennsylvania anthracite region, 1850–1900, using ‘own children’ methods

Summary

The four main countries of the eastern Pennsylvania anthracite coal mining region furnish a case study of fertility decline in an area which is changing from a rural, agricultural base to an urban, industrial economy. Samples from the enumerators' manuscripts from the U.S. censuses of 1850-80 and 1900 provide the basis for the application of ‘own-children’ techniques for estimating age-specific fertility and child mortality. Age-specific child-woman ratios were tabulated from those samples and were used to estimate age-specific overall and marital fertility rates for the total population and for rural, urban and native and foreign-born sub-groups. Mortality estimates needed for the estimation of age-specific fertility rates are constructed from child survivorship and parity data from the 1900 Census, census death rates for other censuses, and model life tables. The results indicate that there was a consistent decline in fertility in this area over the period 1850-1900 and that most of this decline was due to reductions in age-specific marital fertility. These declines affected the rural, urban, and native-born populations but fertility declined among the foreign-born only towards the end of the period. There is indirect evidence of increasing fertility control within marriage, as seen in the relative decline in marital fertility among older women and the declining estimated mean age at last birth. Marriage practices did, however, begin to change after 1880. The evidence on mortality indicates no real trend in death rates until sometime after 1880, when a consistent decline began. This would make the demographic transition in the anthracite region one in which sustained declines in fertility preceded those in mortality.

This research was funded by NICHHD Grant No. HD-07599. Cornell University provided part of the computer funds used in the preparation of this paper. The author wishes to thank Roger Avery for his helpful comments, and Eileen Driscoll, David Rubashkin, and Michael Strong for able research assistance.

This research was funded by NICHHD Grant No. HD-07599. Cornell University provided part of the computer funds used in the preparation of this paper. The author wishes to thank Roger Avery for his helpful comments, and Eileen Driscoll, David Rubashkin, and Michael Strong for able research assistance.

Notes

This research was funded by NICHHD Grant No. HD-07599. Cornell University provided part of the computer funds used in the preparation of this paper. The author wishes to thank Roger Avery for his helpful comments, and Eileen Driscoll, David Rubashkin, and Michael Strong for able research assistance.