Demographic variables and the recent trend in fertility in Guyana, 1960–1971

Summary

In Guyana during 1960–71, fertility declined not only among all women, but among all union status groups including married women, and also among both ethnic sub-groups, East Indians and non-East Indians. Discussion of the differing trends in cumulative and current fertility shows that the decline in fertility was very recent, dating from the mid-1960s, so that while cumulative fertility increased at older ages between 1960 and 1970, age-specific fertility declined at all ages between 1965 and 1971.

Our examination of the intermediate variables leads us to conclude that motivationally determined variables were a more important cause of fertility decline than involuntary or biological factors. Involuntary factors actually had small positive effects on fertility, suggesting that the true fertility decline between 1960 and 1971 was even greater than observed. The relevant motivational variables fall into two groups, the union formation and the fertility control variables. The mean age at union formation rose by 0.89 years during these ten years, and this mainly affected the fertility of younger women (15-24). The effect of this factor was more complicated for older women: while more women had ever been in unions, and legal unions had increased at the expense of common-law unions, a lower proportion were currently in unions. The net effect of union status changes at older ages would have been to increase fertility.

The fertility control variables, use of contraception, voluntary infecundity and abortion, were, however, responsible for fertility decline at older ages (25–44). These factors were particularly important in explaining the decline in marital fertility, since by definition the union-status factors do not apply to married women. The greater fertility decline of East Indian women reinforces our argument, because during the last 30 years this ethnic sub-group experienced greater social change than non-East Indians - their educational status improved more rapidly (though beginning from a lower base), and since they formed the major part of the agricultural labour force, it was East Indians who experienced most of the shift out of agriculture. These changes are all likely to raise the cost of children, and since fertility fell more rapidly in the group most affected, the evidence supports our explanation of fertility decline in the whole society.

The author acknowledges the assistance of the Statistical Bureau of Guyana in making data available, and the help of Dr Kingsley Davis and Dr Judith Blake in the writing of the article.

The author acknowledges the assistance of the Statistical Bureau of Guyana in making data available, and the help of Dr Kingsley Davis and Dr Judith Blake in the writing of the article.

Notes

The author acknowledges the assistance of the Statistical Bureau of Guyana in making data available, and the help of Dr Kingsley Davis and Dr Judith Blake in the writing of the article.