The gap between births intended and births achieved in 22 European countries, 2004–07

Abstract

Using data from the 2004 and 2007 waves of the European Social Survey (ESS), we find that for every 100 births intended, about 60 births occur, on average, across 22 countries. This shortfall in fertility masks substantial heterogeneity between subgroups within the populations surveyed. Motherhood status, age, partnership status, and the strength of fertility intentions moderate the relationship between women's childbearing plans and births measured at the country level. Individual-level analyses using data from three countries included in the 2005 and 2008 waves of the Generations and Gender Survey are consistent with our country-level analyses. We demonstrate that repeat cross-sectional data can be used to analyse the correspondence between childbearing plans and births when longitudinal data are lacking.

Keywords:

• fertility
• fertility intentions
• low fertility
• cross-national
• European Social Survey
• Generations and Gender Survey

Notes

1. Kristen Harknett is at the University of Pennsylvania, 271 McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA. E-mail: [email protected]

2. The authors are grateful to Josh Goldstein, Francesco Billari, and anonymous reviewers for their helpful contributions.