Determined to stop? Longitudinal analysis of the desire to have no more children in rural Mozambique

Abstract

Classic demographic theories conceptualize desired family size as a fixed goal that guides fertility intentions over the childbearing years. However, a growing body of research shows that fertility plans, even nominally long-term plans for completed childbearing, change in response to short-term conditions. Because of data limitations, much of this research has focused on low-fertility contexts, but short-term conditions are likely to be even more important in high-fertility contexts. This paper uses three waves of survey data collected in rural Mozambique to study predictors of the desire to stop childbearing in a context of relatively high fertility and high individual and social instability. We use fixed effects models to assess how women’s desires to stop childbearing are shaped by demographic factors, household economic conditions, and health status, controlling for constant individual characteristics. Results provide evidence that fertility desires both reflect stable underlying goals and evolve in response to individual and social circumstances.

Keywords:

• fertility
• fertility intentions
• longitudinal analysis
• sub-Saharan Africa

Notes

1 Please direct all correspondence to Sarah R. Hayford, Department of Sociology, Ohio State University, 238 Townshend Hall, 1885 Neil Avenue Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1404, USA; or by E-mail: [email protected]

2 The data used in this analysis were collected with support from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institutes of Child Health and Human Development (grants R21HD048257, R01HD058365; Agadjanian, PI). This research was also supported in part by Ohio State University’s Institute for Population Research (P2C-HD058484). An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2013 International Population Conference sponsored by the meetings of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.