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Abstract
Existing knowledge of Tibetan historical population development is mostly based on ‘best-guess’ estimates and is heavily politicized. Using census data, I reconstruct the development of Tibetan fertility in China since the 1940s, with the objective of providing an independent assessment that can be used as benchmark for future studies and debates on Tibetan demography. Following major social and economic transformations starting in the 1950s, Tibetan fertility unexpectedly increased from the late 1950s to the late 1960s. As noted in several existing studies, Tibetan fertility in China then declined swiftly from the early 1980s onwards and has now reached values close to replacement level. Focusing on the 1950–70 period, I examine factors that contributed to shaping the Tibetan fertility increase in more detail. This confirms that changes in nuptiality and disease-related infertility both played a role in pushing up fertility rates among Tibetan women in China.
Notes
1 Please direct all correspondence to Thomas Spoorenberg, PhD, Population Division/DESA, United Nations, 2 United Nations Plaza, Room DC2-1936, New York, NY 10017, USA; or by E-mail: [email protected]
2 The author wishes to acknowledge the National Bureau of Statistics of China that provided the underlying data to IPUMS, making this research possible, as well as Danan Gu for his assistance in accessing some of the more recent census data by nationality.
3 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations.