Factors Affecting Evacuation Behavior: The Case of 2007 Cyclone Sidr, Bangladesh

Abstract

Cyclone Sidr, a Category 4 storm, struck the southwestern coast of Bangladesh on 15 November 2007. Despite early cyclone warnings and emergency evacuation orders for coastal residents, thousands of individuals stayed in their homes. This study examines Sidr victims’ responses to cyclone warnings and evacuation orders, and explores the factors that would explain why the victims did or did not comply with the orders. Based on survey data collected from 277 Sidr survivors living in the four most severely impacted coastal districts, this study found that more than 75 percent of all respondents were aware of the cyclone warnings and evacuation orders before Sidr's landfall. Despite the efforts of the Bangladesh government, there were lapses in cyclone warnings and evacuation procedures. Field data also reveal several reasons cited by respondents for not complying with evacuation orders. Multivariate analyses of survey data show that trust in warning messages was the most important determinant in the decision to seek refuge in safer shelters, followed by distance to nearest shelter and annual level of education. Several recommendations have been made to improve cyclone warnings and the use of public shelters for similar future events.

El ciclón Sidr, una tormenta de Categoría 4, golpeó la costa sudoeste de Bangladesh el 15 de noviembre de 2007. A pesar de las advertencias de ciclón tempranas y de las órdenes de evacuación de emergencia dadas a los residentes costeros, miles de personas permanecieron en sus casas. Este estudio examina las respuestas de víctimas del Sidr a las alertas de ciclón y a las órdenes de evacuación, y explora los factores que podrían explicar por qué los sobrevivientes cumplieron o no las órdenes dadas. Con base en datos de campo obtenidos de 277 sobrevivientes del Sidr residentes en los cuatro distritos costeros que fueron afectados de modo más severo, este estudio encontró que más del 75 por ciento de todos los encuestados que respondieron conocieron las alertas de ciclón y las órdenes de evacuación antes de que Sidr tocara tierra. A pesar de los esfuerzos del gobierno de Bangladesh, se presentaron fallas en las alertas y en los procedimientos de evacuación. Los datos de campo también revelan varias razones citadas por quienes respondieron, como excusa para no acatar las órdenes de evacuación. Los análisis multivariados de los datos del estudio indican que la confianza en los mensajes de alerta fue el determinante más importante en la decisión de buscar abrigo en los refugios más seguros, seguido por la distancia al refugio más cercano y el nivel de educación por años de estudio. Se han formulado varias recomendaciones para mejorar las alertas de ciclón y el uso de refugios públicos para enfrentar eventos similares en el futuro.

Key Words:

• coastal Bangladesh
• Cyclone Sidr
• cyclone warnings
• evacuation orders
• public cyclone shelters

关键词:

• 孟加拉国沿海地区
• 气旋锡德
• 气旋警告
• 撤离的命令
• 公共气旋庇护

Palabras claves:

• costas de Bangladesh
• ciclón Sidr
• alertas de ciclón
• órdenes de evacuación
• refugios públicos contra ciclones

Notes

*I wish to thank Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado, Boulder; Dean's Office, College of Arts and Sciences and Provost Office, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, for funding this study. I would also like to thank Munshi Khaledur Rahman and Bankim Chandra Rakhit for participating in the field survey in Bangladesh. For preparing figures for this article, I gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Michel Stimers, a former graduate student in geography at Kansas State University. I am also grateful to anonymous reviewers who offered insightful comments.

¹ A district is the second largest administrative unit in Bangladesh, with an average population of 2.5 million.

² An Upazila is the lowest administrative unit in Bangladesh and it is made up of several unions.

³ Comprising about 2,316 square miles (6,000 km²), the Sundarbans is the world's largest mangrove forest. It covers southwestern Bangladesh and the southeastern coasts of West Bengal, India. Two thirds of this forest lies within Bangladesh (Paul 2009).

⁴ This is closely associated with social capital theory, which is defined as the actual or potential resources that can be derived through one's social network (Bourdieu 1985).

⁵ It is worth mentioning that killas are not located near public cyclone shelters. This acts as a barrier to compliance with evacuation orders for residents who own cattle. The average distance between killas and public cyclone shelters is about five miles (7.5 km).

⁶ For more details about the questionnaire survey, see Paul (2009) and Paul and Dutt (2010a, 2010b).

⁷ In the context of compliance with cyclone evacuation orders in Bangladesh, several studies (e.g., Chowdhury et al. 1993; Ikeda 1995; Amin 2007; Paul 2009) reported that coastal residents are less willing to travel more than a mile (1.6 km) to take safer refuge in public shelters during an emergency. For this reason, the distance is dichotomized here as one mile or less and more than one mile.