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Abstract
Internal migration rates in the United States have been steadily declining for at least twenty-five years: In 1984, 6.4 percent of the population moved between counties but by 2006—well before the most significant economic crisis since the Great Depression—annual intercounty migration rates had already declined to 4.7 percent and by 2010 to 3.5 percent. Despite the implications of the migration decline, it is poorly recognized and understood. The analysis shows that over the last thirty years, three broad trends have combined to pull migration rates dramatically lower: an increase in dual-worker couples, increased household indebtedness, and the widespread rise of information and communication technologies (ICTs). The first two are probably linked, as households have responded to decreasing real income over the last quarter-century through greater female labor force participation and maintaining current levels of consumption by borrowing ever more heavily from the equity in their homes. Thus, although this analysis shows that the decline in migration rates is not directly linked to the Great Recession, the migration decline is surely linked to the broader macroeconomic shifts that gave rise to it. With respect to the role of ICTs, it is not surprising that as ICTs have transformed nearly everything else across society, their use has affected migration rates. It is presumed that ICTs are providing new forms of mobility that are substituting for migration.
美国境内内部迁徙的比率, 至少在近二十五年来持续下降中: 1984 年有百分之六点四的人口跨郡迁徙; 到了2006年—正好是大萧条之后的最重大经济危机发生之前—跨郡迁徙率已降至百分之四点七; 直至2010年更跌至百分之三点五。除了迁徙减少所带来的意涵之外, 我们对该现象仍缺乏充分的认识与理解。本分析显示, 过去三十年来, 有三大趋势共同造成迁徙率大幅的降低: 双薪配偶的增加、家户负债的成长、以及信息与通讯科技 (ICTs) 的普遍提升。前两造原因或许相互有关, 其中家户必须透过提高女性劳动力的参与, 以及加重房产抵押净值的借贷以维持当下的消费水平, 藉此因应过去二十五年来实质收入减缩的问题。本研究从而显示, 迁徙率虽与大萧条无直接相关, 但迁徙率的降低确实与大范围的总体经济变迁紧密连结, 该变迁导致了迁徙率的降低。至于信息与通讯科技的角色, 我们对其近乎改变了社会中的每个面向并不感到诧异, 因此科技的使用亦影响了迁徙率。我们推测, 信息与通讯科技提供了新型态的能动性, 用来取代实质的迁移。
Las tasas de migración interna de los Estados Unidos han venido declinando consistentemente durante los pasados veinticinco años: Mientras en 1984 el 6.4 por ciento de la población se desplazó permanentemente entre los condados, en el 2006—mucho antes de la crisis económica más importante desde la Gran Depresión—las tasas anuales de migración entre condados había declinado al 4.7 por ciento; en el 2010 esa tasa había descendido al 3.5 por ciento. No obstante las implicaciones que tiene la declinación migratoria, ésta es pobremente reconocida y entendida. El análisis indica que durante los pasados treinta años se han combinado tres grandes tendencias para reducir dramáticamente las tasas de migración: el incremento de parejas de casados que trabajan en equipo, el aumento del endeudamiento familiar y la proliferación generalizada de las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación (TICs). Las dos primeras probablemente están relacionadas entre sí en la medida en que los hogares han respondido a la disminución del ingreso real durante el último cuarto de siglo con una mayor participación de la fuerza laboral femenina, al tiempo que conservan los actuales niveles de consumo obteniendo mayores préstamos a expensas de la equidad del hogar. Por eso, aunque este análisis muestre que la declinación en las tasas migratorias no está directamente relacionada con la Gran Recesión, la reducción de la migración seguramente está relacionada con los mayores cambios macroeconómicos que la originaron. Respecto al papel desempeñado por las TICs, no es de sorprendernos que en cuanto esas tecnologías han transformado casi todo en el ámbito social, su uso también haya afectado las tasas de migración. Se presume que las TIC están proporcionando nuevas formas de movilidad que sustituyen el movimiento migratorio.
Notes
1. Attribution for the phrase related to tropes is due to Richard Wright, who helped in the clarification of this section.
2. This analysis focuses on intercounty migration rates. Interstate migration rates over this same period are similar to intercounty rates but are slightly more muted.
3. Like all surveys, not all respondents answer all questions. Kaplan and Schulhofer-Wohl (2012) report that the CPS is unable to directly infer the migration status of about 10 to 12 percent of respondents in any given year. Migration estimates produced from the sample of respondents would likely be biased. Thus, the census uses imputation procedures that allocate data from another respondent, who matches a census-defined profile of the respondent with missing data, to the missing data (see U.S. Census Bureau Citation2006; Kaplan and Schulhofer-Wohl 2012).
4. Cooke (2011) attributes about 63 percent of the decline in migration rates between 1999 and 2009 to the Great Recession, but the analysis is based on 1999 CPS migration estimates that have now been shown to be upwardly biased (Kaplan and Schulhofer-Wohl 2012). The likely impact of this upward bias is to overestimate the effect of the Great Recession on the decline in migration rates.
5. Estimated through ordinary least squares, this logistic regression will exhibit heteroscedasticity, which is then resolved through the estimation of robust standard errors in Stata (see Rogers Citation1993).