Perception of Hurricane and COVID-19 Risks for Household Evacuation and Shelter Intentions

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges for scholars and government officials to predict people’s evacuation decisions under a conflicting natural disaster. In this study, we examined households’ evacuation and shelter intentions given the potential conflicts between the perceived risks from a hurricane and the coexisting public health crisis. We surveyed households living inside hurricane evacuation zones in Florida during the 2020 hurricane season. Data were first used to examine the evacuation and shelter intentions before and during the pandemic. We then measured respondents’ hurricane and COVID-19 risk perception, respectively. The impacts of both risk perceptions on respondents’ hurricane evacuation intentions were explored. We found that when people felt unsafe to stay home for a Category 2, 3, or 4 hurricane, their intended evacuation was about the same before and during the pandemic regardless of their COVID-19 risk perception. The COVID-19 risk perception, however, significantly lowered the evacuation intention for a Category 1 hurricane. It also significantly influenced evacuees’ preference for nontraditional shelters such as government-contracted hotels. The results of our study have practical implications for emergency management and public health governance. Our study also provides insights into decision-making under the conflict between natural hazards and infectious diseases.

新冠肺炎流行病与其它自然灾害相互冲突, 给专家和政府预测人群的疏散决定提出了新的挑战。我们探讨了家庭疏散和避难的意愿, 考虑了飓风的感知风险与公共卫生危机之间的潜在冲突。我们调查了2020年飓风季节美国佛罗里达州飓风疏散区内的家庭。首先, 基于数据探讨了流行病之前和期间的疏散和避难意愿。然后, 我们分别度量了受访者对飓风和新冠肺炎的风险感知。探讨了这两种风险感知对受访者飓风疏散意愿的影响。我们发现, 在2、3或4级飓风中, 当人们认为居家危险时, 不管如何感知新冠肺炎风险, 人们在新冠肺炎流行之前和期间的疏散意愿大致相同。然而, 新冠肺炎风险感知显著降低了1级飓风的撤离意愿。它还显著影响了疏散者对非传统庇护所（如, 政府指定酒店）的偏好。我们的研究结果, 对应急管理和公共卫生治理具有实际意义。我们的研究, 还为自然灾害和传染病相互冲突情况下的决策提供了见解。

La pandemia del COVID-19 planteó nuevos retos a los eruditos y funcionarios gubernamentales para predecir las decisiones de evacuación de la gente sometida a un desastre natural conflictivo. En este estudio, examinamos la evacuación e intenciones de albergue de familias teniendo en cuenta potenciales conflictos entre los riesgos percibidos de un huracán y las crisis coexistentes en la salud pública. Encuestamos a las familias que residían en las zonas de evacuación por huracanes de la Florida durante la temporada de huracanes del 2020. Los datos se usaron primero para examinar las intenciones de evacuación y de refugio antes y durante la pandemia. Después, medimos la percepción del riesgo de afectaciones por huracanes y COVID-19 de los encuestados, respectivamente. Se exploraron los impactos de ambos tipos de percepciones de riesgo en las intenciones de evacuación, por encuestado. Hallamos que cuando la gente se siente insegura de permanecer en casa frente a huracanes de las categorías 2, 3 y 4, su evacuación intencionada era más o menos la misma de antes y durante la pandemia, sin importar la percepción del riesgo de COVID-19. No obstante, la percepción del riesgo de COVID-19 redujo de manera significativa la evaluación de la intención de evacuación para un huracán de categoría 1. Eso también influyó significativamente en la preferencia de los evacuados por refugios no tradicionales, como los hoteles contratados por el gobierno. Los resultados de nuestro estudio tienen implicaciones prácticas en el manejo de las emergencias y la gobernanza de la salud pública. También proporciona nuestro estudio nuevas visiones en lo que concierne a toma de decisiones bajo condiciones de conflicto entre las catástrofes naturales y la enfermedades contagiosas.

Key Words:

• evacuation
• hurricane
• natural hazards
• risk perception
• SARS-CoV-2

关键词:

• 疏散
• 飓风
• 自然灾害
• 风险感知
• SARS-CoV-2。

Palabras clave:

• evacuación
• huracán
• percepción de riesgos
• riesgos naturales
• SARS-CoV-2

Acknowledgments

We thank Dr. Jay Baker, Jordan Daly, and the two anonymous reviewers for discussion and comments that greatly improved the article.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Florida State University under Grant 36312.

Notes on contributors

Tingting Zhao

TINGTING ZHAO is an Associate Professor in the Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306. E-mail: [email protected]. Her research interests include geographic information systems and their applications in risk analysis and emergency management.

Minna Jia

MINNA JIA is the Director of the FSU Survey Foundry, Institute of Science and Public Affairs, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306. E-mail: [email protected]. Her research interests include survey methods, public opinions, and public policy evaluations.

Tian Tang

TIAN TANG is an Associate Professor in the Askew School of Public Administration and Policy, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306. E-mail: [email protected]. Her research studies energy technology innovation, smart city technologies, and their impacts on resilient and sustainable governance.

Yanshuo Sun

YANSHUO SUN is an Assistant Professor of Industrial Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32310. E-mail: [email protected]. He specializes in mathematical optimization and big data analytics with applications in transportation and logistics systems.