Abstract
A quantitative approach has been promoted to understand the history of climate and society. Statistical research on luxurious expenses under climate change in past societies remains insufficient, however. Hence, this study statistically examined the association between climate change and the imperial court’s luxury expenses on silk products in mid-Qing China (1735–1840 CE) by including major ecological–social–economic stresses. Results indicated that the Qing imperial court’s silk consumption increased under favorable climatic conditions and a flourishing agrarian economy, and vice versa. Natural disasters and social crises hardly affected the Qing imperial court’s silk consumption, however, suggesting its limited support and inactive attitude toward ecological–social–economic stresses. Such an institutional weakness might have increased social vulnerability, which could have led to Qing China’s decline since the eighteenth century. The study serves as the first attempt to reveal a long-term historical climate–luxury linkage and further provides a supplementary explanation of the economic decline from the perspective of the history of climate and society. Based on past lessons, this study emphasizes institutional activeness to tackle upcoming climate change challenges.
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Supplemental Material
Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2024.2345883
Notes
1 Emperor Qianlong took the throne in 1735 CE, which is selected as the starting year of the study period. The first year of the Qianlong reign period is 1736 CE.
2 The relationship between climate change and silk production found in this study is a trend on a long-term scale, and directly using historical records on a micro scale, as evidence is difficult to obtain. We have identified some examples indicating that the short-term meteorological disasters killed mulberries, silkworms, or both. One example is that in the ninth year of Jiaqing’s reign (1804 CE), the summer was dry, planting beans was impossible, and buckwheat was harvested, but silkworm cocoons were not. The original sentence is (嘉慶九年)夏旱, 不能種豆, 蕎麥有收, 蠶繭不成。《方城縣誌》卷五 (Records of Fangcheng County, Chapter 5). Another example is that in the thirteenth year of Tongzhi’s reign (1874 CE), the mulberry trees were damaged by the frost the previous winter, the price of mulberry leaves rose to sixty coins, and some people even buried their silkworms. The original sentence is(同治十三年)桑被客冬凍損, 鬻葉一斤價至六十文, 甚有埋其蠶者。《陽城縣誌》卷十八 (Records of Yangcheng County, Chapter 18).
3 For example, in the spring and summer of the thirty-fourth year of Qianlong’s reign (1769 CE), heavy rains fell in Huzhou (in Zhejiang Province) for several consecutive months, and silkworms and wheat were damaged. The heavy rain flooded the farmland, and the harvest failed in the autumn. The original sentence is(乾隆三十四年)春夏, 湖州霪雨連旬, 損蠶麥, 大水, 田禾淹沒。秋無收。《長興縣誌》卷九 (Records of Changxing County, Chapter 9). Another example is that in the tenth year of Jiaqing’s reign (1805 CE), the harvest of wheat and beans was suddenly reduced, and the harvest of silk became even worse owing to heavy rains in March and April in the Hang, Jia, and Hu prefectures in the western Zhejiang Province. As a result, prices increased, and people’s lives became difficult; hence, they needed to be properly compensated. The original sentence is 浙西 杭、嘉、湖三府屬因本年(嘉慶十年)三四月間陰雨較多, 麥豆收成頓減, 蠶絲更為歉薄, 價漸長, 民食維艱, 極須妥為撫恤。《嘉興府誌》卷二十 (Records of Jiaxing County, Chapter 20).
4 During the sixth year of Qianlong’s reign (1741 CE), sixteen counties, including Fengyang (in Anhui Province), were hit by floods; crops were also damaged. On 25 November of the same year, the emperor rewarded officials almost 108,750 teals of silver and 69,738 rolls of silk cloth to celebrate the fiftieth birthday of the emperor’s mother. The original sentences are 乾隆六年…今年上江鳳陽等十六州縣夏秋被水。有傷禾稼。《大清高宗純皇帝實錄》卷一百五十三 (Records of Emperor Gaozong Chun (Qianlong) of the Qing Dynasty, Chapter 153);本年十一月二十五日、恭遇皇太後五十萬壽。…共應賞銀十萬八千七百五十兩。布六萬九千七百三十八匹。《大清高宗純皇帝實錄》卷一百五十四 (Records of Emperor Gaozong Chun (Qianlong) of the Qing Dynasty, Chapter 154).
5 The original sentence is 既無開銷正項之體。則必取之商捐。《大清高宗純皇帝實錄》卷三百四十 (Records of Emperor Gaozong Chun (Qianlong) of the Qing Dynasty, Chapter 340).
6 During the fifty-fifth year of Qianlong’s reign (1790 CE), an investigation found that officials in various provinces were not doing their jobs properly and had bad reputations among the people. The original sentence is 各督撫聲名狼藉。吏治廢弛。經過各省地方。體察官吏賢否。商民半皆蹙額興嘆。各省風氣。大抵皆然。《大清高宗純皇帝實錄》卷一千三百六十七 (Records of Emperor Gaozong Chun (Qianlong) of the Qing Dynasty, Chapter 1367).
7 The original sentence is 各省節年積欠錢糧。半由吏蝕官侵。《清實錄道光朝實錄》卷四十二 (Records of Emperor Daoguang of the Qing Dynasty, Chapter 42).
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Mengyuan Qiu
MENGYUAN QIU is a Postdoctoral Fellow in the Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong. E-mail: [email protected]. Her research interests include climate change and economic impacts, regional economic imbalance, and urban development.
Qing Pei
QING PEI is an Associate Professor in the Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics and the Department of Chinese Culture at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong. E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]. His research interests include historical geography, history of climate and society, and social-ecological resilience.
Alex Lo
ALEX LO is a Professor at the York Business School, York St. John University, York YO31 7EX, UK. E-mail: [email protected]. His research focuses primarily on public and policy response to climate change.
Jie Fei
JIE FEI is a Professor in the Institute of Historical Geography at Fudan University, Shanghai, China. E-mail: [email protected]. His research focuses on historical physical geography and the history of geography.