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Abstract
Hermannsson K., Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G. and Swales J. K. ‘Policy scepticism’ and the impact of Scottish higher education institutions (HEIs) on their host region: accounting for regional budget constraints under devolution, Regional Studies. A ‘policy scepticism’ has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional higher education institution (HEI) impact analyses. This paper provides a systematic critique of such scepticism. While rejecting its extreme form, the limiting effect of the binding public-sector expenditure constraints under devolution is noted and it is shown how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate these constraints. While the results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.
Hermannsson K., Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G. and Swales J. K. “政策存疑论”与苏格兰高等教育机构（HEIs）对其所在区域之影响：阐述中央权力下放的区域预算限制，区域研究。“政策存疑论”的兴起，挑战了传统的区域高等教育机构影响分析之成果。本论文则对该存疑论提出了系统性的批判。本研究拒绝其极端形式，指出在中央权力下放之下，具有约束力的公部门支出限制仍有限制性的作用，亦证明如何得以强化传统的影响分析来应对这些限制。研究结果虽指出传统的影响分析对高等教育机构支出的影响有着过高的评价，却也同时证明将这些支出效应视为无关紧要的政策存疑论，实则忽略了高等教育机构的某些重要面向，特别是它们的出口密集度。
Hermannsson K., Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G. et Swales J. K. Le ‘scepticisme envers la politique’ et l'impact des établissements d'enseignement supérieur (EES) en Écosse sur la région d'accueil: tenir compte des contraintes budgétaires régionales en vertu du transfert de compétences, Regional Studies. Du ‘scepticisme envers la politique’ a vu le jour, remettant en cause les résultats des analyses d'impact régionales conventionnelles des établissements d'enseignement supérieur (EES) en Écosse. Cet article fait la critique systématique d'un tel scepticisme. Tandis que l'on le rejette sous sa forme extrême, on note l'effet limitatif des contraintes budgétaires engagées du secteur public suite au transfert de compétences et on démontre comment on pourrait compléter les analyses d'impact conventionnelles pour tenir compte de ces contraintes. Alors que les résultats laissent supposer que les études d'impact conventionnelles surestiment l'influence des EES sur les dépenses, ils démontrent aussi que le scepticisme envers la politique qui considère cette influence sur les dépenses comme dénuée d'intérêt, ne fait aucune attention à certaines caractéristiques fondamentales des EES, notamment leur propension à l'exportation.
Hermannsson K., Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G. und Swales J. K. ‘Politische Skepsis’ und die Auswirkung der schottischen höheren Lehranstalten auf ihre Gastregion: Berücksichtigung von regionalen Etateinschränkungen im Rahmen der Dezentralisierung, Regional Studies. Es ist eine ‘politische Skepsis’ entstanden, die die Ergebnisse der herkömmlichen Analysen über die regionalen Auswirkungen von höheren Lehranstalten in Frage stellt. In diesem Beitrag wird diese Skepsis auf systematische Weise kritisiert. Ihre extreme Form wird abgelehnt, doch zugleich weisen wir auf die einschränkende Auswirkung der verbindlichen Ausgabengrenzen für den öffentlichen Sektor im Rahmen der Dezentralisierung hin und zeigen, wie sich die herkömmlichen Auswirkungsanalysen erweitern lassen, um diese Einschränkungen zu berücksichtigen. Die Ergebnisse lassen darauf schließen, dass die Auswirkungen auf die Ausgaben höherer Lehranstalten in den herkömmlichen Auswirkungsanalysen überschätzt werden, doch sie zeigen auch, dass die politische Skepsis, die diese Ausgabenauswirkungen als irrelevant behandelt, einige zentrale Aspekte der Lehranstalten vernachlässigt, insbesondere ihre Exportintensität.
Hermannsson K., Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G. y Swales J. K. ‘Escepticismo político’ y el impacto de las instituciones de educación superior escocesas en su región anfitriona: considerar las restricciones del presupuesto regional en la transferencia de competencias, Regional Studies. Ha surgido un ‘escepticismo político’ que cuestiona los resultados de los análisis convencionales del impacto regional de las instituciones de educación superior. En este articulo incluimos una crítica sistemática de tal escepticismo. A la vez que se rechaza su forma extrema, observamos el efecto limitado de las restricciones de los gastos del sector público en la transferencia de competencias y demostramos cómo pueden aumentarse los análisis convencionales de impacto para tener en cuenta estas restricciones. Si bien los resultados indican que los estudios convencionales de impacto sobreestiman los impactos de los gastos de las instituciones de educación superior, también demuestran que el escepticismo político que considera que estos efectos de los gastos son irrelevantes se olvida de algunos aspectos importantes de las instituciones de educación superior, en concreto su intensidad exportadora.
Acknowledgements
– This paper is an output of the ‘Overall Impact of Higher Education Institutions on Regional Economies’ project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC), the Higher Education Funding Council of England (HEFCE), the Higher Education Funding Council of Wales (HEFCW), and the Department for Employment and Learning Northern Ireland (DELNI) (Grant Number RES-171-25-0032). The authors also acknowledge additional funding from the Centre for Public Policy for Regions. They are indebted to Nikos Pappas for excellent research assistance and to Ursula Kelly for helpful discussions and advice. Furthermore, the authors are grateful to the participants at ‘Scotland's Universities and the Economy: Impact, Value and Challenges’, 30 June 2009, in particular Ron Botham. This project is one of nine funded through the Impact of Higher Education Institutions on Regional Economies Initiative.
Notes
1. For details of the construction of the IO accounts, the derivation of the income and expenditure structure of the HEIs sector, and the data sources used, see Hermannsson et al. Citation(2010a).
2. For an overview, see Goldstein Citation(2009), Hermannsson and Swales Citation(2010), and McMahon (Citation2009).
3. Indeed, the analysis may have a more general applicability, since even where budgets are not devolved there may be interest in identifying the demand-side implications of expenditure switching.
4. For a more detailed account of the methodology of impact studies and regional multipliers, see Armstrong and Taylor Citation(2000), Loveridge Citation(2004), and Miller and Blair Citation(2009).
5. The distinction between endogenous and exogenous activity depends on the model and the application. Extended and dynamic IO models endogenize additional elements of final demand, such as government expenditure and investment (Batey and Madden, Citation1983; Batey and Rose, Citation1990; Madden, Citation1993). Also in the environmental accounting literature, McGregor et al. (Citation2004) suggested endogenizing trade in a single-region context in an attempt to link local polluting emissions fully to local private and public consumption.
6. The nature of the regional economy naturally governs the acceptability of such assumptions. For example, in the island economy of Jersey the institutional framework restricts migration so that supply-side crowding out can be expected even in the long run (Learmonth et al., Citation2007).
7. McGregor et al. (2006) argued that although less frequently applied, the IO analysis is methodologically superior to Keynesian income–expenditure models. However, the latter might be used in circumstances where indicative results are considered sufficient or IO accounts are not available and cannot be constructed with the resources available.
8. Except perhaps in the most recent studies based on the Scottish IO Output tables. Although it should be noted that the multipliers for HEIs cannot be obtained directly from the Scottish IO tables but have to be disaggregated from the education sector based on supplementary information. The final outcome of this process is sensitive to the exact process and the data sources. Some aspects of the HEIs' incomes and expenditures are particularly important in this regard, such as the quality of the available data on imports.
9. For further details on Keynesian multiplier models, see Armstrong and Taylor Citation(2000), ch. 1.
10. The authors participated in a three-year-long UK-wide initiative on the economic and social impacts of HEIs, for which the funders – the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC), the Higher Education Funding Council of England (HEFCE), the Higher Education Funding Council of Wales (HEFCW), and the Department for Employment and Learning Northern Ireland (DELNI) – emphasized regular public engagement in prearranged knowledge-exchange seminars across the UK. For details of the initiative, see http://ewds.strath.ac.uk/Default.aspx?alias=ewds.strath.ac.uk/impact/.
11. The precise way the formula works is given in more detail by Ferguson et al (Citation2003, Citation2007), though its operation in practice is thought to be rather more flexible, so that what is known as formula bypass can occur (Christie and Swales, Citation2010; Heald, Citation1994). This would be additional funding that extends the binding budget constraint and does not trigger the expenditure shifting discussed here. However, such formula bypass is typically linked to the funding implications of decisions taken by the central UK government on devolved budgets rather than funding outwith the block grant for additional expenditure decisions made by the devolved governments.
12. The Scottish Government does have limited powers to vary its expenditure through adjusting the standard income tax rate up or down by 3 pence in the pound. This is the Scottish variable rate, but it has never been used. For details, see, for example, Lecca et al. Citation(2010) and McGregor and Swales (Citation2005).
13. The public sector is aggregated from five sectors in the HEI-disaggregated IO table (IO115, IO116, IO117, IO118 and IO119). Approximately 10% of the sector's final demand is from other sources than government.
14. For further discussion about analysing the impact of expenditure switching within an IO context, see Allan et al. Citation(2007).
15. It should be noted that RUK exports include central government expenditures such as grants offered by research councils based on UK-wide competitive bidding. However, this category also includes income from non-government sources, such as tuition fees paid by students from the RUK. Furthermore, income from intermediate demand is treated as endogenous in the IO model and is therefore counted as part of the ‘knock-on’ impacts, rather than driving a ‘knock-on’ impact. For a discussion of this point and how it is sometimes misunderstood in impact studies in practice, see Oosterhaven and Stelder Citation(2002). For details of how these incomes are determined, see Hermannsson et al. Citation(2010a).
16. For details, see Appendix A.
17. Warhurst et al. Citation(2009) built on and expanded the work of Callander et al. Citation(2005).
18. For the academic year 2008/2009, LÍN estimated the cost of subsistence for obtaining a single European Credit Transfer System (ECTS) credit in Scotland was £142, where a full academic year would consist of sixty credits, amounting to anticipated costs of £8520 (see http://www.lin.is/Namslan/utlan/framfaerslutafla.html).
19. The category also includes support from private charities. Here the conservative stance is adopted that the charities are funded from Scottish contributions and therefore represent a redistribution within the Scottish economy rather than an additional injection.
20. In principle, parents could be funding these transfers by drawing on savings or taking out new credit, but it is assumed they are met with consumption switching from parents to student.
21. Information on the composition of other income is not available in Warhurst (2009). Therefore, the conservative stance that it is non-additional to the Scottish economy is adopted here.