Do Differences in the Exposure to Chinese Imports Lead to Differences in Local Labour Market Outcomes? An Analysis for Spanish Provinces

Abstract

Donoso V., Martín V. and Minondo A. Do differences in the exposure to Chinese imports lead to differences in local labour market outcomes? An analysis for Spanish provinces, Regional Studies. In the period 1999–2007 Spanish imports from China multiplied six times, making that Asian country the fourth largest supplier to the Spanish economy. This paper analyses whether this massive increase in imports impacted on the labour markets of Spanish provinces to differing degrees, due to differences in their initial productive specialization. The results show that Spanish provinces with a higher exposure to Chinese imports experienced larger drops in manufacturing employment as a share of the working-age population. However, this reduction was compensated for by increases in non-manufacturing employment.

Donoso V., Martín V. and Minondo A. 开放中国进口的差异程度是否会导致在地劳动市场结果的差异？西班牙各省的分析，区域研究。自 1999 年至 2007 年，西班牙自中国的进口增长了六倍，使得中国这个亚洲国家成为西班牙经济的第四大供应国。本文分析此一大规模的进口增加，是否会因西班牙各省原本的生产专殊，对各省的劳动市场造成不同程度的影响。研究结果显示，西班牙对中国进口开放程度较高的省，在其工作年龄人口中，製造业工作的比例较为显着地减少。但此一减少却也透过非製造业就业的增加而获得补偿。

Donoso V., Martín V. et Minondo A. Les différences dans l'exposition aux importations chinoises, est-ce qu'elles entraînent des différences dans les résultats sur le marché du travail local? Une analyse auprès des provinces espagnoles, Regional Studies. Pendant la période de 1999 à 2007, les importations espagnoles en provenance de la Chine ont sextuplé, ce qui a rendu ce pays asiatique le quatrième fournisseur de l’économie espagnole. Cet article cherche à analyser si, oui ou non, cette augmentation vertigineuse des importations a influencé les marchés du travail provinciaux espagnols à des degrés divers, à cause des différences de leur spécialisation productive initiale. Les résultats laissent voir que les provinces espagnoles dont l'exposition aux importations chinoises s'avère plus élevée, ont accusé des baisses plus importantes de l'emploi industriel en pourcentage de la population en âge de travailler. Cependant, cette réduction était compensée par des hausses de l'emploi non-manufacturier.

Donoso V., Martín V. und Minondo A. Führen Unterschiede beim Anteil chinesischer Importe zu Unterschieden auf dem lokalen Arbeitsmarkt? Eine Analyse für die spanischen Provinzen, Regional Studies. Die spanischen Importe von China haben sich im Zeitraum von 1999 bis 2007 versechsfacht und dieses asiatische Land zum viertgrößten Lieferanten für die spanische Wirtschaft gemacht. In diesem Beitrag untersuchen wir, ob sich diese massive Zunahme der Importe aufgrund der Unterschiede bei der anfänglichen Spezialisierung der Produktion unterschiedlich stark auf die Arbeitsmärkte der einzelnen spanischen Provinzen ausgewirkt hat. Aus den Ergebnissen geht hervor, dass spanische Provinzen mit einem höheren Anteil chinesischer Importe einen stärkeren Rückgang des Beschäftigungsniveaus im produzierenden Sektor als Anteil an der Bevölkerung im arbeitsfähigen Alter verzeichneten. Allerdings wurde dieser Rückgang durch eine Erhöhung des Beschäftigungsniveaus im nicht-produzierenden Sektor ausgeglichen.

Donoso V., Martín V. y Minondo A. ¿Conducen las diferencias en la exposición a las importaciones chinas a diferencias en los resultados del mercado laboral de ámbito local? Un análisis para las provincias españolas, Regional Studies. En el periodo 1999–2007 las importaciones españolas de China se multiplicaron por seis, convirtiendo al país asiático en el cuarto mayor proveedor de la economía española. En este trabajo analizamos si el enorme aumento de las importaciones chinas tuvo un impacto diferente sobre el mercado laboral de las provincias españolas debido a su especialización productiva inicial. Nuestros resultados muestran que las provincias españolas con una mayor exposición a las importaciones chinas tuvieron mayores caídas en el empleo manufacturero como porcentaje de la población en edad de trabajar. Sin embargo, esta caída se compensó con un aumento del empleo no manufacturero.

• Imports
• China
• Spain
• Employment
• Manufactures
• Provinces

• 进口
• 中国
• 西班牙
• 就业
• 製造业
• 省

• Importations
• Chine
• Espagne
• Emploi
• Produits manufacturés
• Provinces

• Importe
• China
• Spanien
• Beschäftigung
• Produzierender Sektor
• Provinzen

• Importaciones
• China
• España
• Empleo
• Manufacturas
• Provincias

JEL classifications:

• F16
• J23

Acknowledgements

The authors thank Patricia Canto, Francisco Requena and the participants at the XVth Encuentro de Economía Aplicada in A Coruña for valuable suggestions.

Funding

The authors acknowledge the financial support from the Complutense Institute for International Studies (ICEI), Complutense University, Madrid; the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness [grant numbers MINECO ECO2010–21643 and ECO2011–27619], co-financed with the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER), and HAR2010–18544; and from the Basque Government Department of Education, Language Policy and Culture.

Notes

1. Figures were calculated from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and World Bank databases (available at: http://www.wto.org and http://www.worldbank.org, respectively).

2. Cadarso et al. (2008) find that outsourcing to Eastern and Central European countries reduced employment in Spanish industries characterized by medium-to-high technology.

3. Spain is divided into 52 provinces. Due to their special circumstances and the lack of data for several variables, excluded from the sample are the two Spanish provinces located in Africa (Ceuta and Melilla).

4. As the dependent variable and the independent variable are first differences, the estimation results are equivalent to the estimates of a regression where the dependent variable and the independent variable are measured in levels, and province-level fixed effects are introduced.

5. The regression coefficient is similar to the one obtained for the full sample period in Fig. 5.

6. All individuals with nationality in high-income countries (World Bank classification) are not included as foreign nationality population.

7. Working-age population between the ages 16 and 24 years.

8. House price data were obtained from the Spanish Ministry of Public Works.

9. During the period 1999–2007 the construction sector demand for inputs from the manufacturing sector accounted for around one-third of the construction sector's total demand for inputs, and 10% of total production in the manufacturing sector. Source: Spanish input–output table 1999–2007.

10. The mean annual growth rate of the real mean wage in the period 1999–2007 was 2.0% in the construction sector, 1.2% in the manufacturing sector and 1.3% in the overall economy. Source: Spanish Tax Agency and Spanish National Institute of Statistics.

11. Data for ICT, R&D expenditure, Patents, and K-L ratio were obtained, respectively, from EU KLEMS, the OECD STAN database, the Spanish Office of Patents and Trademarks (OEPM), and the Spanish National Institute of Statistics.

12. These countries are referred to as the EU-14 throughout this paper.

13. The probability values for the t-statistics are now 0.11 and 0.13, respectively.

14. The share of manufacturing employment over the working-age population was 10.4% in 1999, 10.7% in 2003 and 10.1% in 2007. The number of manufacturing workers was 2.762 million in 1999, 3.016 million in 2003 and 3.037 million in 2007. These data correspond to the second quarter of the corresponding year.

15. Autor et al. (2013, theory appendix) perform a decomposition to calculate the share of the variance in imports per worker that stems from the exogenous supply-driven component. They find that 48% of the observed variation in rising Chinese import exposure is due to the supply-driven component, with the remainder attributed to demand factors.

16. For reasons of space, only the estimated results for the import exposure variable are reported.

17. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

18. Data for CEE countries’ imports to Spain by industry were obtained from the UN Comtrade database.

19. Data for Spanish exports by industry were obtained from the UN Comtrade database.

20. Data for EU-14 exports to China were obtained from the UN Comtrade database.

21. The mean annual growth rate in the period was 4.2% (1.2% in the United States and 1.5% in the EU-15).

22. Apart from manufacturing, the industry sector includes mining and quarrying, recycling, and electricity, gas and water supply activities. Plausibly, the bias effect should be negligible since the manufacturing activities represent 94% of employment in the industry sector.

23. Results are available from the authors upon request.