![Sample our Urban Studies journals, sign in here to start your FREE access for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/110826/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Urban-Studies.jpg"})
Abstract
Pastor J. M. and Peraita C. The tax returns of public spending on universities: an estimate with Monte Carlo simulations, Regional Studies. This paper proposes a methodology based on counterfactual scenarios and the existence of uncertainty to estimate the tax returns of public spending of regional governments on their public universities. The introduction of differences in the time spent by the students at university and the proportion of the total public expenditure implies making assumptions about uncertainty. The paper applies Monte Carlo simulations incorporating stochastic elements to estimate the tax returns of public spending in the University of the Basque Country (Spain). The results indicate that public expenditure in university education is a profitable investment from a fiscal perspective.
Pastor J. M. and Peraita C. 对大学进行公共支出的税收回报：以蒙特卡罗模拟法进行评估，区域研究。本文提出一个根据反事实情景与不确定性存在的方法论，评估区域政府对于境内公立大学的公共支出所获得之税收回报。引进学生花费在大学的时间以及全体公共支出比例的差异，意味着对不确定性进行预设。本文运用结合随机元素的蒙特卡罗模拟方法，评估巴斯克自治区（西班牙）对大学进行的公共支出所获得的税收回报。研究结果显示，从财政的角度而言，对大学教育的公共支出，是门可获利的投资。
Pastor J. M. et Peraita C. Les déclarations d'impôts sur les dépenses publiques affectées aux universités: une estimation à partir des simulations Monte Carlo, Regional Studies. Ce présent article propose une méthodologie fondée sur des histoires contrefactuelles et la présence de l'incertitude afin d'estimer les déclarations d'impôts sur les dépenses publiques des administrations régionales affectées à leurs universités publiques. Introduisant les différences du temps passé à l'université par les étudiants et la proportion des dépenses publiques globales laisse supposer qu'il faut formuler des hypothèses à propos de l'incertitude. L'article applique des simulations Monte Carlo comportant des éléments stochastiques pour estimer les déclarations d'impôts sur les dépenses publiques affectées à l'Université du Pays Basque (Espagne). Les résultats indiquent que les dépenses publiques consacrées à l’éducation universitaire s'avèrent un investissement rentable du point de vue fiscal.
Pastor J. M. und Peraita C. Steuereinkünfte durch öffentliche Ausgaben für Hochschulen: eine Schätzung mit Monte-Carlo-Simulationen, Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag wird eine Methodologie auf der Grundlage von kontrafaktischen Szenarien und der Existenz von Ungewissheit vorgeschlagen, um die Steuereinkünfte aufgrund der öffentlichen Ausgaben von Regionalregierungen für ihre öffentlichen Hochschulen zu schätzen. Die Einführung von Unterschieden hinsichtlich der von den Studenten in den Hochschulen verbrachten Zeit und des Anteils der gesamten öffentlichen Ausgaben impliziert Annahmen über die Ungewissheit. In dem Beitrag werden die Steuereinkünfte durch öffentliche Ausgaben für die Universität des Baskenlandes (Spanien) mithilfe von Monte-Carlo-Simulationen unter Berücksichtigung von stochastischen Elementen geschätzt. Aus den Ergebnissen geht hervor, dass öffentliche Ausgaben in Hochschulbildung aus fiskaler Perspektive eine rentable Investition darstellen.
Pastor J. M. y Peraita C. Ganancias de impuestos a través del gasto público en universidades: una estimación con simulaciones de Montecarlo, Regional Studies. En este artículo proponemos una metodología basada en casos contrafactuales y la existencia de incertidumbre para calcular las ganancias de impuestos a través del gasto público de Gobiernos regionales en sus universidades públicas. La introducción de diferencias en el tiempo dedicado por los estudiantes en la universidad y el porcentaje del gasto público total implica formular hipótesis sobre la incertidumbre. En este artículo aplicamos las simulaciones de Montecarlo incorporando elementos estocásticos para calcular las ganancias de impuestos a través del gasto público en la Universidad del País Vasco (España). Los resultados indican que el gasto público en la educación universitaria es una inversión rentable desde un punto de vista fiscal.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions made which improved the quality of the paper.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Supplemental data
Supplemental data for this article can be accessed at http://10.1080/00343404.2015.1068931
Notes
1. Sudmant's (Citation2009) central idea is that the economic impacts of universities are different from those attributable to other organizations because as well as the ‘static impact' on the economy, universities also have a ‘dynamic impact' that increases the productive capacity of the economy.
2. Hermannsson et al. (Citation2014b) provide a systematic critique of the ‘policy scepticism' that challenges the results of conventional regional higher education institution impact analyses. They demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats the higher education expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of higher education institutions.
3. See Serrano and Pastor (Citation2002) and Pastor et al. (Citation2007) for the case of Spain.
4. This estimate probably undervalues the impact on the endowment of human capital, as the induced effects that generate, in the medium and long-term, further increases in human capital should be added (López, Citation2009; Collier et al., Citation2011).
5. The authors especially thank a referee for their helpful suggestions on this point. A detailed analysis of the empirical case for ability bias and its magnitude is offered in by McMahon (Citation2009, appx A). For instance, Hermannsson et al. (Citation2014a) suggest a signalling effect of approximately 10% for graduates in the labour market of Scotland. This should be well within the margin error explored in the Monte Carlo simulations developed below in the next section.
6. These authors introduce a debate on this ‘canonical model' that assumes that technology takes a factor-augmenting form, which, by complementing either high- or low-skill workers, can generate skill-biased demand shifts.
7. This paper does not take into account the lost tax revenues from students not being in full-time employment while at university. The above results refer to an ‘average' graduate of the UBC. Important differences exist according to the type of course studied in the cost per student, the average duration of the studies, unemployment rates and income levels. All these differences can significantly influence the figures referring to the average UBC graduate. Unfortunately, there is no information on these variables to enable a computation to be made of tax return figures by course or, at least, by type.
8. Oracle Crystal Ball software (see http: //www.crystalballservices.com) was used to perform the simulations and the selection of the distribution functions. Based on the observed data, in this case of Spanish public universities, the software suggests the distribution function that best fits the data. In the case of the difference in probability of unemployment, no information is available a priori based on observed data; therefore, it was impossible to use this procedure and a normal function was directly assumed.