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ABSTRACT
The impact of European Union accession on regional income convergence within the Visegrad countries. Regional Studies. This paper applies regional dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to simulate the growth of regional per-capita income within the Visegrad group of countries. It shows how regional income differentials would evolve in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia if they did not join the European Union. We find that all regions would grow at a slower pace without European Union membership and that the European Union structural policies play a key role here. Finally, we prove the impact of accession on the evolution of regional income inequalities, although its magnitude differs significantly between countries.
摘要
加入欧盟对维谢格拉德各国的区域所得聚合之影响。Regional Studies. 本文应用区域动态的可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，模拟维谢格拉德集团中各国的区域人均所得之成长。模拟显示，若捷克共和国、匈牙利、波兰与斯洛伐克未加入欧盟的话，区域所得差异将可能如何演变。我们发现，若不具欧盟会员资格的话，所有的区域将以较慢的速度成长，且欧盟结构政策于此扮演了关键角色。我们最后証实加入欧盟对于区域所得不均之演变的影响，尽管其程度在各国之间有显着的差异。
RÉSUMÉ
L’impact de l’adhésion à l’Union européenne sur la convergence des revenus au sein des pays du groupe de Visegrad. Regional Studies. Ce présent article applique des modèles d'équilibre général calculable (EGC) régionaux pour stimuler la croissance du revenu régional par tête dans les pays du groupe de Visegrad. Il démontre comment l’évolution des écarts de revenu régionaux se déroulerait en République tchèque, en Hongrie, en Pologne et en Slovakie dans le cas où ces derniers ne s’adhéreraient pas à l’Union européenne. Il s’avère que le taux de croissance dans toutes les régions progresserait à un rythme plus lent en l’absence de leur adhésion à l’Union européenne et que les politiques structurelles de l’Union européenne jouent un rôle primordial à cet égard. Pour terminer, on démontre l’impact de l’adhésion sur l’évolution des écarts de revenu régionaux, bien que son ampleur varie sensiblement suivant la région.
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG
Auswirkung des Beitritts zur Europäischen Union auf die regionale Einkommenskonvergenz in den Visegrad-Ländern. Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag simulieren wir unter Anwendung von regionalen dynamischen berechenbaren allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodellen (CGE-Modellen) das Wachstum des regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommens in den Visegrad-Ländern. Hierbei wird gezeigt, wie sich die regionalen Einkommensunterschiede in der Tschechischen Republik, in Ungarn, in Polen und in der Slowakei entwickelt hätten, wenn diese Länder nicht der Europäischen Union beigetreten wären. Wir stellen fest, dass sämtliche Regionen außerhalb der Europäischen Union langsamer gewachsen wären und dass die strukturpolitischen Maßnahmen der Europäischen Union hierbei eine entscheidende Rolle spielen. Zuletzt weisen wir die Auswirkung des Beitritts auf die Entwicklung der regionalen Einkommensungleichheit nach, wobei allerdings der Umfang von Land zu Land signifikant unterschiedlich ausfällt.
RESUMEN
El impacto de la adhesión a la Unión Europea en la convergencia de las rentas regionales en los países de Visegrado. Regional Studies. En este artículo aplicamos los modelos dinámicos de equilibrio general computable regional para simular el crecimiento de las rentas regionales per cápita en el grupo de países de Visegrado. Mostramos cómo los diferenciales de rentas regionales se hubieran desarrollado en la República Checa, Hungría, Polonia y Eslovaquia si estos países no hubieran ingresado en la Unión Europea. Observamos que todas las regiones hubieran crecido a un ritmo más lento fuera de la Unión Europea y que las políticas estructurales de la Unión Europea desempeñan un papel fundamental en este contexto. Para terminar, demostramos el efecto de la adhesión en la evolución de las desigualdades de rentas regionales, aunque su magnitud difiere de forma significativa entre los países.
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
SUPPLEMENTAL DATA
Supplemental data for this article can be accessed at https://doi.org10.1080/00343404.2017.1333593.
Notes
1. Based on the neoclassical growth model by Solow–Swan (e.g., Solow, Citation1956).
2. Beginning with the New Economic Geography (NEG) models pioneered by Krugman (Citation1991).
3. We focus on the Visegrad countries due to data availability and because each has at least several regions at the NUTS-2 level. Because NUTS-2 is the main territorial statistical level used in European Cohesion Policy, most studies of regional income disparities in Europe use NUTS-2 regions.
4. Due to lack of regional expenditure data, we exclude programmes co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF).
5. Here, we mean mainly theoretical models developed within the NEG. They show that a decrease of trade costs may induce agglomeration and lead to an increase in regional income disparities (for reviews of different NEG models, see Baldwin et al., Citation2003; and Fujita & Thisse, Citation2002).
6. As mentioned above, we particularly take into account CAP and rural development funding, changes in tariffs, migration, remittances and EU Cohesion Policy.
7. In fact, at the time of EU accession in 2004, significant tariffs on trade with EU member states were retained only for agricultural products.
8. Similar evolution of per-capita income can be found in other NMS as well.
9. Except Cyprus and Malta, which were not included in their analysis.
10. Although migration is not necessary for the agglomeration process to occur (e.g., Venables, Citation1996).
11. The home market effect indicates that the location with a larger home market has more than a proportionally larger manufacturing sector.
12. The price index effect shows that the region with a larger manufacturing sector has a lower price index. As a consequence, the regions with a larger manufacturing sector may offer not only higher nominal wages but also higher real wages.
13. This effect leads to a decrease in firms’ profits in a region with a larger number of manufacturing workers through a fall in the local price index.
14. For instance, income transfers will have a different impact than transport infrastructure investment.
15. Currently, once we sum the financial means under the cohesion heading and rural development subheading, it accounts for almost half the EU budget (in 2016, almost €70 billion out of an overall €155 billion).
16. Here the CAP support would increase the share of the agricultural sector in the regional economy.
17. The well-known global trade analysis project (GTAP) model is another ORANI descendant.
18. In this sense, TERM allows a much more detailed analysis than other CGE models used in the evaluation of EU Cohesion Policy (e.g., HERMIN or RHOMOLO).
19. See Appendix A in the Supplemental data online for a more detailed description of TERM.
20. For details on the neoclassical convergence approach, see, for example, Barro and Sala-i-Martin (Citation1991, Citation1992).
21. Obviously, although the simulations cover the entire 2000–13 period, the differences in results begin in 2004.
22. These regions (except Mazowieckie) received less Structural Funding. Both Praha and Bratislavský kraj were already covered by Objective 2 in the 2004–06 programming period, while Közép-Magyarország joined them outside the Convergence Objective for the 2007–13 financial perspective.
23. According to World Bank data, in 2004 the sum of exports and imports reached 114% of GDP in the Czech Republic and 140% of GDP in Slovakia, but only 72% in Poland.
24. Actually, the sum of exports and imports as a share of GDP was higher than in the Czech Republic and reached 123% in 2004.
25. We suggest that the competition from abroad is less severe because Hungary is further from the European core than are the Czech Republic or Slovakia.
26. See Barro and Sala-i-Martin (Citation1991, Citation1992) for more details about the neoclassical approach to convergence.
27. Coefficient of variation of regional per-capita GDP.