DO ‘WRONG WINNER’ ELECTIONS TRIGGER ELECTORAL REFORM? LESSONS FROM NEW ZEALAND

Abstract

This article asks whether, by what mechanisms, and with what strength ‘wrong winner’ elections—in which a party coming second in votes wins a majority of seats—trigger pressure for electoral reform. It does so through detailed process tracing of the New Zealand case, where wrong winner elections in 1978 and 1981 preceded reform in 1993. It argues that the wrong winner results did facilitate the reform process in New Zealand, but that they were far from sufficient to generate the reform outcome: other factors had to be present too. The additional factors that spurred reform in New Zealand were unusual, suggesting that reform following wrong winner elections is likely to be rare. But caution regarding this conclusion is required: it cannot be excluded that such elections might facilitate other reform paths too.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am grateful to the members of the Political Science and International Relations Programme at Victoria University of Wellington for hospitality, advice and assistance during my research in New Zealand, and to David Erdos and the anonymous reviewers at Representation for comments on an earlier draft. Full responsibility for any failings remains my own.

Notes

1. Ray Dykes, ‘Fresh stirrings over voting reform’, New Zealand Herald, 26 May 1979.

2. ‘Preference vote pledge’, New Zealand Herald, 27 Nov. 1978.

3. Judy Addinell, ‘Voting system reform to be advocated’, New Zealand Herald, 20 Jan. 1979, 8.

4. ‘Challenge to first‐past‐post system’, New Zealand Herald, 11 March 1982.

5. ‘“Unfair” electoral boundaries catch blame for Labour loss’, New Zealand Herald, 18 Dec. 1981.

6. ‘Change in voting opposed’, New Zealand Herald, 6 Dec. 1978.

7. Jonathan Hunt, interview, London, 10 Oct. 2006.

8. John Terris, telephone interview, 18 Aug. 2006.

9. Geoffrey Palmer, interview, Wellington, 9 Aug. 2006.

10. Interview with former member of the Labour parliamentary party, Wellington, 25 Aug. 2006.

11. ‘Leaders assess the campaign’, New Zealand Herald, 13 July 1984.

12. John Armstrong, ‘Govt to hold ballot on 4‐year term’, New Zealand Herald, 17 April 1989.

13. ‘Electoral reform remit rejected’, New Zealand Herald, 7 Nov. 1987.

14. ‘Majority system favoured’, New Zealand Herald, 12 Sept. 1985.

15. Richard Northey, telephone interview, 19 Aug. 2006; Margaret Wilson, interview, Wellington, 23 Aug. 2006.

16. Phil Saxby, interview, Wellington, 8 Aug. 2006.

17. ‘Out of all proportion’, New Zealand Herald, 29 Nov. 1978; ‘Not yet quite final’, New Zealand Herald, 21 Dec. 1978.

18. ‘A price on fairness’, New Zealand Herald, 19 Dec. 1986.