Climate change: An uncertain future for dairy farming in Zimbabwe

Abstract

Climate change is significantly altering biodiversity, socio-economic and agricultural patterns all over the world. Understanding how climate change will affect the total land area suitable for dairy farming is important for future agricultural decisions. In this study we sought to determine variations in area suitability for dairy farming in Zimbabwe under the current climate and future climate scenarios. The chi-square test was used to establish whether the area suitable for dairy farming in Zimbabwe will significantly change under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5. The Temperature Humidity Index (THI) measure, estimated from temperature and relative humidity was used to map areas suitable for dairy farming in Zimbabwe. Using the THI we found out that under RCP 8.5 and RCP 6.0 the areas potentially suitable for dairy farming will decrease by at least 25.4% and 2.7%, respectively. However, RCP 2.6 will likely cause an increase in areas suitable for dairy farming. These findings suggest a possible loss in areas suitable for dairy farming yet most farmers in Zimbabwe depend on its proceeds. By predicting the likely change in dairy farming areas, this study allows strategies that help adapt and cope with the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Keywords:

• THI
• GIS
• dairy farming
• agriculture
• Zimbabwe

ORCID

Henry Ndaimani http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8237-8140

Kudzai Mpakairi http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1929-1464

Never Mujere http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6683-9560