Money demand during hyperinflation and stabilization: Bulgaria, 1991-2000

Abstract

The demand for money in Bulgaria is estimated over a ten-year period (1991–2000) of high inflation and inflation uncertainty. The paper distinguishes between three well-defined sub-periods: high, variable, but not systematically accelerating inflation from 1991 until April 1996; the near-hyperinflation period from May 1996 to February 1997; and the subsequent stabilization after the adoption of a currency board. The empirical analysis utilizes a standard methodology of cointegration and error correction. The functional determinants of the demand for money change during the different sub-periods. During the hyperinflation episode, Cagan's model is employed.