The United States and East Asia after Iraq

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Acknowledgements

The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the US government. The author thanks Steven Duke for research assistance, and Bernard Cole, Bonnie Glaser, James Schear, Colonel Michael Bell and Lieutenant-Colonel Jaime Laughrey for helpful comments.

Notes

1. This article is based on three sets of sources. The first is discussions with Asian government officials and security experts over the last three years, including annual dialogues with Japanese, South Korean and Chinese experts and research trips to ten Asian countries. The second is a review of commentary from major Asian newspapers on the fifth anniversary of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, which provided a good overview of Asian concerns about US involvement in Iraq. The third is a review of recent public opinion polls, including 2006 studies by the Pew Global Attitudes Project and by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

2. 'U.S. image in Asia Deteriorating', Yomiuri Shimbun , 10 September 2006; ‘Survey: US Image Deteriorates in Asia’, Associated Press, 10 September 2006.

3. Other studies consulted include the 2006 Pew Global Attitudes Poll, ‘America's Image Slips, But Allies Share U.S. Concerns Over Iran, Hamas’, 13 June 2006, http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=252; a BBC World Service/GlobeScan Poll, ‘Global Poll: Iran Seen Playing Negative Role’, 3 February 2006, http://www.globescan.com/news_archives/bbc06-3/index.html; and a BBC World Service/GlobeScan Poll, 'World Public Says Iraq War Has Increased Global Terrorist Threat’, 28 February 2006, http://www.globescan.com/news_archives/bbcpoll06-4.html.

4. Chicago Council on Global Affairs, The United States and the Rise of China and India: Results of a 2006 Multination Survey of Public Opinion (Chicago, IL: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 2006), pp. 52, 57.

5. 85% in China, 84% in South Korea, 73% in Australia, 72% in Indonesia and 61% in the Philippines said that the Iraq War had increased the threat of terrorism. 44% of those surveyed in India felt the war had increased the threat of terrorism, while 18% felt the war had reduced terrorist threats. BBC World Service/GlobeScan Poll, ‘World Public Says Iraq War Has Increased Global Terrorist Threat’, p. 5.

6. Chicago Council on Global Affairs, The United States and the Rise of China and India , pp. 52, 57.

7. Ibid. , pp. 50–53. Proportions viewing the United States as playing a ‘very positive’ or 'somewhat positive' role in resolving Asian problems were 59% in China, 66% in India and 58% in South Korea.

8. The 600 Japanese troops deployed in Samara were assigned to reconstruction duties; South Korea's 3,500 troops made it the third largest contributor to the coalition.

9. See 'China in Asia: Chinese Influence, Asian Strategies, and U.S. Policy Responses', report of American Enterprise Institute and National Defense University conference, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/AEI-NDU_China_Seminars.

10. China's position is ambivalent: it officially opposes all military alliances, but supports the presence of US troops in Asia so long as they contribute to regional stability and are not aimed against China.

11. China's initiatives have been in the political and economic spheres. US commitments in Iraq may have increased North Korea's confidence that it could conduct a nuclear test without inciting US military retaliation. However, US willingness to invade Iraq likely reinforced North Korean fears of US military capabilities; North Korean official statements justifying its nuclear test emphasise the need to deter a possible US military attack.

12. Ann Scott Tyson, ‘U.S. Casualties in Iraq Rise Sharply’, Washington Post , 8 October 2006, p. A1.

13. Bill Gertz, ‘More Muscle, with Eye on China’, Washington Times , 20 April 2006.

14. Valiant Shield 2006 , http://www.pacom.mil/exercises/vs2006/index.shtml.

15. Julian E. Barnes, 'Army is Stretched Too Thin', Los Angeles Times , 15 December 2006.

16. Because combat is the crucible for evaluating officer performance, Iraq will also have a significant effect on the composition of the senior officer corps.

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Notes on contributors

Phillip C. Saunders

Phillip C. Saunders is Senior Research Fellow, Institute for National Security Studies, National Defense University. This article was prepared for a Council on Foreign Relations/IISS Symposium on Iraq's Impact on the Future of US Foreign and Defence Policy, with generous support from Rita E. Hauser.