Crime concentration in Perth CBD: a comparison of officer predicted hot spots, data derived hot spots and officer GPS patrol data

ABSTRACT

In an applied criminology context, recent meta-analyses and randomized control trials have demonstrated the benefits of targeting police patrols at hot spots or concentrations of street level crime and disorder. This study asked a group of 79 police officers from Perth to make a prediction, based on their experience, of where hot spots of crime would occur in the near future. Officer-defined hot spots were then compared with hot spots derived from police crime data over the preceding 24 month period. Finally, officer patrol time was tracked using a GPS-enabled smart phone and overlayed against both types of hot spot. This analysis indicates that police officers should be supported with hot spot mapping tools which identify data derived micro-places with persistent issues. Analysis also reveals officers patrol both their own and data-derived hot spots regularly; however, they only stay for a matter of a few minutes. These short stays are contrary to best evidence, which dictates officer patrols in hot spots should last for approximately 15 minutes in order to create both initial and residual deterrence.

KEYWORDS:

• Patrol
• GPS
• tracking
• geospatial
• predictive

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank Paul House and Christine McComb

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.