What Should University Admissions Tests Predict?

Abstract

University admissions tests should predict an applicant's ability to succeed in college, but how should this success be defined and measured? The status quo has been to use 1st-year grade point average (FYGPA) as the key indicator of college success, but a review of documents such as university mission statements reveals that universities expect students to develop a broad range of skills that are not always fully captured by FYGPA. In this article, evidence related to college and university documents are reviewed and analyzed for common links with regard to the essential capabilities these institutions purport to seek and to develop in their students. A conceptual model outlining what outcomes admissions tests ought to predict is then presented and discussed. Finally, the article considers whether admissions testing ought to be based on an applicant's aptitude, ability, or achievement in the essential skill areas that most universities aim to develop in their students.