New Zealand's demographics and population ageing

Abstract

New Zealand's ageing population is at the heart of discussions around fiscal sustainability. Demographic projections, regularly produced by Statistics New Zealand, indicate future trends in the size, growth rate, and age–sex structure of the population and labour force. This paper examines those demographic projections including the key projection results, what the projections are measuring, and the methods and assumptions underlying the projections.

Keywords:

• population
• projections
• labour force
• ageing

Notes

1. There is no universally accepted definition of New Zealand's baby boom period, although 1946–1965 marks the period when the annual period total fertility rate was at least 3.5 births per woman. The increase in fertility rates was most pronounced during the 1950s and 1960s, although fertility rates had begun to increase prior to World War II, and remained high into the 1970s.

2. In the figures presented in this paper, shading is used to show the ranges between the different percentiles. All figures are sourced from Statistics New Zealand unless otherwise stated.

3. The labour force is defined as people aged 15 years and over who regularly work for one or more hours per week for financial gain, work without pay in a family business, or are unemployed and actively seeking part-time or full-time work.