Transborder ethnic minorities and their impact on the security of Southeastern Europe*

This study is based on two reports prepared by the author for the World Bank in 1998 and for the NATO Office of Information and Press in 1999. It was done with the support of the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), so special thanks go to Professor Mac Destler and Professor Ivo Daalder, who at that time were, respectively, CISSM's director and research director. On problems in Romania, Professor Charles King from Georgetown University and Professor Vladimir Tismaneanu from the University of Maryland provided invaluable help. To both of them the author owes special gratitude. Professor James Pettifer from Great Britain deserves credit for a number of thoughtful insights and collegial advice. Professor Joost Herman from the University of Groningen fought a long battle in order to get our book on Minorities in East Central Europe and Their Impact on Foreign Policy published (Ivanka Nedeva and Joost Herman, eds [Groningen: Centre for European Security Studies, 1998]). The book was an important stage in the preparation of the present study. My husband, Blagoy Atanasov, took care of our little son and created a genuine atmosphere of support and understanding so that this project could be brought to a successful end.

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Notes

This study is based on two reports prepared by the author for the World Bank in 1998 and for the NATO Office of Information and Press in 1999. It was done with the support of the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), so special thanks go to Professor Mac Destler and Professor Ivo Daalder, who at that time were, respectively, CISSM's director and research director. On problems in Romania, Professor Charles King from Georgetown University and Professor Vladimir Tismaneanu from the University of Maryland provided invaluable help. To both of them the author owes special gratitude. Professor James Pettifer from Great Britain deserves credit for a number of thoughtful insights and collegial advice. Professor Joost Herman from the University of Groningen fought a long battle in order to get our book on Minorities in East Central Europe and Their Impact on Foreign Policy published (Ivanka Nedeva and Joost Herman, eds [Groningen: Centre for European Security Studies, 1998]). The book was an important stage in the preparation of the present study. My husband, Blagoy Atanasov, took care of our little son and created a genuine atmosphere of support and understanding so that this project could be brought to a successful end.

See Kosta Tsipis, ed., Common Security Regimes in the Balkans (New York: Columbia University Press, 1996).

Ibid., pp. 112–113.

Matyas Szabo, “‘Historic Reconciliation’ Awakens Old Disputes,” Transition, 8 March 1996, p. 47; Michael Shafir, “A Possible Light at the End of the Tunnel,” Transition, 20 September 1996, p. 30.

Unfinished Peace. Report of the International Commission on the Balkans (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1996), pp. 157–164.

Charles King, “Introduction: Nationalism, Transnationalism, and Postcommunism,” in Charles King and Neil J. Melvin eds., Nations Abroad. Diaspora Politics and International Relations in the Former Soviet Union (Boulder: Westview Press, 1998), p. 3.

See Transformations in Albanian Societies. Proceedings of a Conference on Political, Economic and Social Change in Albania, Kosova, Macedonia (FYROM) and Montenegro, Sponsored by the Institute on East Central Europe and the Association for the Study of Nationalities. Columbia University, February 10–11, 1995, Harriman Review, Vol. 9, No. 3, Summer 1996, p. 51.

Maria Amor Estebanez, Inter‐Ethnic Relations and the Protection of Minorities—in Democracy in Romania, Assessment Mission Report (Stockholm: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 1997), p. 132.

Janusz Bugajski, Ethnic Politics in Eastern Europe: A Guide to Nationality Policies, Organizations, and Parties (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1994), p. 197; George Scopflin, Hungary and Its Neighbors (Paris: WEU Institute for Security Studies, 1993), p. 37.

Duncan M. Perry, “The Republic of Macedonia: Finding Its Way,” in Karen Dawisha and Bruce Parrot, eds, Politics, Power and the Struggle for Democracy in Southeast Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997), p. 251.

Jacques Rupnic, “Europe's New Frontiers: Re‐mapping Europe,” Daedalus, Vol. 123, No. 3, 1994, pp. 98–99.

C. A. Macartney, National States and National Minorities (London: Oxford University Press, 1934), p. 421.

See Laurie MacDonald Brumberg, “Making the World Safe for Nationalism—And Vice Versa. A Report on a Conference Sponsored by the International Research & Exchanges Board (IREX) and the New Atlantic Initiative” (Washington, DC: IREX, 1997).

Ivanka Nedeva, “Democracy Building in Ethnically Diverse Societies: The Cases of Bulgaria and Romania,” in Ian M. Cuthbertson and Jane Leibowitz, eds, Minorities: The New Europe's Old Issue (Boulder and New York: Institute for EastWest Studies and Westview Press, 1993), pp. 131–132.

Milada Anna Vachudova, “Peaceful Transformations in East‐Central Europe,” in Michael E. Brown, ed., The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict (Cambridge, MA and London: MIT Press, 1996), p. 84.

R. J. Crampton, A Short History of Bulgaria (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987), p. 71

Antonina Zhelyaskova, ed, Mezhdu adaptatsiyata i nostalgiyata: Bulgarskite turtsi v Turtsiya (Sofia: IMIR, 1998), p. 12.

All the information about Turkish periodicals published in Bulgaria during the period 1878–1996 can be found in Ibrahim Yalamov, “Turskiyat periodichen pechat v Bulgaria (1878–1996),” in Mikhail Ivanov, ed, Periodichniyat pechat na maltsinstvata v Bulgaria (1878–1997) (Sofia: “Papagal” ‐OOD, 1998), pp. 6–67.

See Vachudova, “Peaceful Transformations in East‐Central Europe,” p. 88.

Unfinished Peace, p. 130.

Nedeva, “Democracy Building in Ethnically Diverse Societies,” pp. 134–135.

See Ivanka Nedeva, “Kosovo/a: Different Perspectives,” in Thanos Veremis and Evangelos Kofos, eds, Kosovo: Avoiding Another War (Athens: ELIAMEP, University of Athens, 1998), p. 113.

See Elez Biberaj, Albania in Transition. The Rocky Road to Democracy (Boulder: Westview Press, 1998), p. 7.

Thanos Veremis, “The Kosovo Puzzle,” in Thanos Veremis and Evangelos Kofos, eds, Kosovo: Avoiding Another War (Athens: ELIAMEP, University of Athens, 1998), pp. 19–23; Evangelos Kofos, “The Two‐Headed ‘Albanian Question’: Reflections on the Kosovo Dispute and the Albanians of FYROM,” in Thanos Veremis and Evangelos Kofos, eds, Kosovo: Avoiding Another War (Athens: ELIAMEP, University of Athens, 1998), pp. 49–55. For more information on the history of Kosovo see Noel Malcolm, Short History of Kosovo (New York: New York University Press, 1998).

Nedeva, “Kosovo/a: Different Perspectives,” pp. 114–115.

See Dan Blumhagen, “Clashing Symbols: The Status of Ethnic Tension and Conflict in Macedonia,” (Report prepared for USAID, Washington, DC, March 21‐April 1, 1998, pp. 7–8.

See Mary E. McIntosh, Martha Abele MacIver, Daniel G. Abele and David B. Nolle, “Minority Rights and Majority Rule. Ethnic Tolerance in Romania and Bulgaria,” in Laokadia Drobizheva, Rose Gottemoeller, Catherine McArdle Kelleher and Lee Walker, eds, Ethnic Conflict in the Post‐Soviet World. Case Studies and Analysis (Armonk, NY and London: M. E. Sharpe, 1996), pp. 37–66.

Andre Liebich, “Minorities in Eastern Europe: Obstacles to a Reliable Count,” in RFE/RL Research Report, No. 20, 1992, p. 38.

See Nedeva, “Democracy Building in Ethnically Diverse Societies,” p. 151.

Zhelyaskova, ed, Mezhdu adaptatsiyata i nostalgiyata, p. 12.

All figures for Kosovo are taken from Kosovo Spring. The International Crisis Group Guide to Kosovo (Brussels: International Crisis Group, 1998), p. 14.

Transition, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1997; Kosovo Spring, pp. 14–15.

Perry, “The Republic of Macedonia,” p. 254.

Kosovo Spring, p. 16.

See Robert W. Mickey and Adam Smith Albion, “Success in the Balkans? A Case Study of Ethnic Relations in the Republic of Macedonia,” in Ian M. Cuthbertson and Jane Leibowitz, eds, Minorities: The New Europe's Old Issue (Boulder and New York: Institute for EastWest Studies and Westview Press, 1993), pp. 81, 97.

Brian Shott, “Albanian Society in Macedonia and Montenegro,” Harriman Review, Vol. 9, No. 3, Summer 1996, p. 39.

See Blumhagen, “Clashing Symbols,” p. 1; Perry, “The Republic of Macedonia,” p. 276.

Ilona Tomova, “Ethnic Dimensions of the Poverty in Bulgaria,” (Report commissioned by the World Bank, Washington, DC, September 1998), pp. 43–44.

Unfinished Peace, p. 113.

A very good analysis of the problem can be found in Unfinished Peace, pp.15–22.

Smaranda Enache, “The Unitary State versus Minority Rights. The Case of Romania,” in The Rise of Nationalism in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union, Uncaptive Minds, Vol. 9, Nos 3–4, 1997, p. 83.

Kofos, “The Two‐Headed ‘Albanian Question,’” p. 63.

Shott, “Albanian Society in Macedonia,” p. 39.

James Pettifer, “The Albanians in Western Macedonia after FYROM Independence,” James Pettifer, ed., The New Macedonian Question (London and New York: Macmillan Press and St Martin's Press, 1999), p. 144.

See for example Conference Report: Ethnic Conflict and European Security: Lessons from the Past and Implications for the Future (Washington, DC: U.S. Army War College, Women In International Security, 1996).

More particularly see Michael E. Brown, ed., The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict (Cambridge, MA and London: MIT Press, 1996), pp. 1–31, 571– 601. See also Donald L. Horowitz, Structure and Strategy in Ethnic Conflict (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1998).

On this issue see also Catherine McArdle Kelleher, “Indicators, Implications, and Policy Choices,” in Laokadia Drobizheva, Rose Gottemoeller, Catherine McArdle Kelleher and Lee Walker, eds, Ethnic Conflict in the Post‐Soviet World. Case Studies and Analysis (Armonk, NY and London: M. E. Sharpe, 1996), pp. 341–343.

See Macedonia: The Politics of Ethnicity and Conflict (Skopje, Macedonia International Crisis Group, October 21, 1997), p. 10.

For more details see David A. Lake and Donald Rothschild, “Containing Fear. The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict,” International Security, Vol. 21, No. 2, 1996, pp. 128–138.

Here I shall point out only a few of the best scholarly studies on this issue: Barry R. Posen, “The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict,” in Michael E. Brown, ed., Ethnic, Conflict and International Security (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993) pp. 103–124; Jack Snyder, “Nationalism and the Crisis of the Post‐Soviet State,” in Michael E. Brown, ed., Ethnic Conflict and International Security (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. 79–101; Lake and Rothschild, “Containing Fear,” pp. 41–75.

Compare for example the conclusions of Romanian–American Symposium on Inter‐ethnic Relations (Bucharest: Project of Ethnic Relations, 1991), pp. 3–5, and the conclusions of Relations of Compatibility and Incompatibility between Christians and Muslims in Bulgaria (Sofia: International Centre for Minority Studies and Intercultural Relations' Foundation, 1995), p. 210.

Brown, The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, p. 26.

See for example Leah Greenfeld, Nationalism. Five Roads to Modernity (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1992).

Horowitz, Structure and Strategy in Ethnic Conflict, p. 1.

Brumberg, “Making the World Safe for Nationalism,” p. 4.

Greenfeld, Nationalism. Five Roads to Modernity, p. 488.

Horowitz, Structure and Strategy in Ethnic Conflict, p. 1.

Tom Gallagher, Romania after Ceausescu. The Politics of Intolerance (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 1995).

Ibid., p. 233.

V. P. Gagnon, Jr, “Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict. The Case of Serbia,” International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3, 1994/1995, p. 131.

Ibid., pp. 140, 164.

Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkley: University of California Press, 1985), p. 140.

Horowitz, Structure and Strategy in Ethnic Conflict, p. 33.

Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, pp. 64–75; Horowitz, Structure and Strategy in Ethnic Conflict, p. 19.

Brown, The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, p. 587.

Lake and Rothschild, “Containing Fear,” pp. 129–131.

See for example Van Evera, “Hypotheses on Nationalism and War,” International Security, Vol. 18, No. 4, 1994, pp.8–9; Posen, “The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict,” p.107; Snyder, “Nationalism and the Crisis of the Post‐Soviet State,” pp.92–93; Donald Rothschild and Alexander J. Groth, “Pathological Dimensions of Domestic and International Ethnicity,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 110, No. 1, 1995, pp. 69–82.

For details see Grzegorz Ekiert, “Why Some Succeed and Others Fail: Eight Years of Transition in Eastern Europe,” East European Studies, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC, Meeting Report, No. 149, 21 January 1998.

See Vachudova, “Peaceful Transformations in East‐Central Europe,” pp. 69–70.

See Janusz Bugajski, Ethnic Politics in Eastern Europe. A Guide to Nationality Policies, Organizations, and Parties (Armonk, NY and London: M. E. Sharpe, 1995).

The Hungarian party is also known as the “Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania” (DAHR) or as the “Hungarian Democratic Union of Romania.”

See Nedeva, “Democracy Building in Ethnically Diverse Societies,” pp. 141–143.

For more details see Aurelian Craiutu, “A Dilemma of Dual Identity: The Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania,” East European Constitutional Review, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1995, pp. 43–49.

Michael Shafir, “Ruling Party Formalizes Relationship with Extremists,” Transition, 14 April 1995, pp. 41–46; Michael Shafir, “Agony and Death of an Opposition Alliance,” Transition, 26 May 1995, p. 23.

See Vachudova, “Peaceful Transformations in East‐Central Europe,” p. 86.

For more details see Francisco Veiga, “On the Social Origins of Ultranationalism in Romania, 1989–1993,” in Lavinia Stan, ed., Romania in Transition (Dartmouth: Aldershot, 1997), pp. 49–66.

Perry, “The Republic of Macedonia,” p. 233.

Pettifer, “The Albanians in Western Macedonia,” p. 141.

Perry, “The Republic of Macedonia,” p. 240.

For more about the student movement see Kosovo Spring, pp. 56–60.

For more about the first signs of the existence of UCK see Kosovo Spring, pp. 69–75.

For more about MRF see Nedeva, “Democracy Building in Ethnically Diverse Societies,” pp. 136–140.

See Report on Bulgaria's Parliamentary Elections, April 19, 1997. Sofia: Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 1997.

Horovitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, p. 187.

George Schopflin, “Aspects of Language and Ethnicity in Central and Eastern Europe,” Transition, Vol. 2, No. 24, 29 November 1996, p. 64.

For more details see Michael Shafir, “Controversy over Romanian Education Law,” Transition, Vol. 2, No. 1, 12 January 1996, pp. 34–37, 72.

Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia, 1997 Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Macedonia (Skopje, 1997), pp. 595–597.

See Macedonia: The Politics of Ethnicity and Conflict, pp. 7–8.

For more details see Kosovo Spring, pp. 49–56.

Astrit Salihu, “An Education in Profit,” Transitions, May 1998, pp. 22–23.

Craiutu, “A Dilemma of Dual Identity,” p. 44.

Mickey and Albion, “Success in the Balkans,” p. 77.

For more about this issue see Macedonia: The Politics of Ethnicity and Conflict, pp. 8–10.

See Janusz Bugajski, “The Balkans: On the Brink Again,” Washington Quarterly, Autumn 1997, p. 220; James Pettifer, “The Rise of the Kleftocracy,” World Today, January 1997, pp. 13–15.

See Werner Weidenfeld, ed., Central and Eastern Europe on the Way into the European Union. Problems and Prospects of Integration. Strategies for Europe (Gutersloh, Germany: Bertelsmann Foundation, 1995), p. 30.

Macedonia: The Politics of Ethnicity and Conflict, p. 5.

Pettifer, “The Albanians in Western Macedonia,” p. 145; see also Mickey and Albion, “Success in the Balkans,” pp. 75–76.

Tom Miller, “Macedonia Macroeconomic Overview,”draft, 16 April 1998, G/EGAD/EM, p. 6.

Mickey and Albion, “Success in the Balkans,” p. 56.

See Perry, “The Republic of Macedonia,” p. 264.

See Shott, “Albanian Society in Macedonia and Montenegro,” pp. 39–40.

The facts are from Kosovo Spring, pp. 60–63, and Washington Post, May–June 1998.

Washington Post, 29 September 1998, p. A13; 2 October 1998, p. A 35.

See International Helsinki Federation, The Health Care Situation in Kosovo (Helsinki, 1991).

See Alan Ross, “Politics and Polio in Kosovo,” East European Studies, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC, Meeting Report, No. 71, 24 September 1992.

The data are from an unpublished study quoted in Kosovo Spring, p. 61.

See Daniel Daianu, “Macro–Economic Stabilization in Post‐Communist Romania,” in Lavinia Stan, ed., Romania in Transition, pp. 93–125.

See Weidenfeld, ed., Central and Eastern Europe on the Way, pp. 191–192.

See Michael Wyzan, “Why Is Bulgaria a Land of Failed Reforms?” Transitions, Vol. 4, No. 2, July 1997, p. 88.

See Michael Wyzan, “Increased Inequality, Poverty Accompany Economic Transition,” Transition, Vol. 2, No. 20, 1996, p. 27.

For more on this see King and Melvin, Nations Abroad, p. 5; Rogers Brubaker, Nationalism Reframed: Nationhood and the National Question in the New Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996). See also Rogers Brubaker, Citizenship and Nationhood in France and Germany (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1992).

For more details see Ivanka Nedeva, Bulgaria's Relations with Greece and Turkey and the Idea of Trilateral Cooperation (Sofia: Free Initiative Foundation, 1993); see also Vassil Prodanov, “Ethnic Minorities and the Formation of Bulgaria's Foreign Policy,” in Ivanka Nedeva and Joost Herman, eds, Minorities in East Central Europe and Their Impact upon Foreign Policy (Groningen: Centre for European Security Studies, 1998), pp. 18–20.

See Prodanov, “Ethnic Minorities and the Formation of Bulgaria's Foreign Policy,” p. 20.

Nedeva, Bulgaria's Relations with Greece and Turkey, p. 31.

All the data about Bulgarian–Turkish relations after 1997 was gathered in the Archive of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bulgaria. The author also conducted interviews in June 1999 with the deputy chief of the Department for South East Europe, Theodore Rusinov, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bulgaria and the staff of the Turkish section of the same ministry.

For more details about BSEC see Nedeva, Bulgaria's Relations with Greece and Turkey, pp. 21–23; a very good analysis on recent developments in BSEC is given by Oleksandr Pavliuk, “Empire of Words,” Transitions, September 1998, Vol. 5, No. 9, pp. 58–63.

Bulgaria Today. Current Political, Economic and Social News from Bulgaria. Embassy of Bulgaria, Washington, D.C., Vol.1.6, 14 April 1999, p. 5.

Author's interview with Theodore Russinov, 8 June 1999.

Richard Crampton, “Bulgaria and the Development of the Balkans since 1989,” East European Studies Newsletter, May–June 1999, p. 11.

For details see Maria Koinova, “Courting Minorities in Bulgaria,” Transitions, December 1998 Vol. 5, No. 12, pp. 12–13.

George Schopflin and Hugh Poulton, Romania's Ethnic Hungarians (London: Minority Rights Group, 1990), p. 23.

For more on Hungarian–Romanian relations in the late 1980s and the early 1990s see Schopflin and Poulton, Romania's Ethnic Hungarians; George Schopflin, Hungary and Its Neighbors (Paris: Western European Union, Institute for Security Studies, 1993).

A very good analysis of the approach of the Antall government toward Hungarian minorities abroad can be found in Pal Dunay, “Hungary,” in Ivanka Nedeva and Joost Herman, eds, Minorities in East Central Europe and Their Impact on Foreign Policy (Groningen: Centre for European Security Studies, 1998), pp. 58–67.

Ibid., p.61.

Schopflin and Poulton, Romania's Ethnic Hungarians, p. 24.

Dunay, “Hungary,” p.60.

Ibid., p.67.

Quoted after ibid., p. 68.

See Gabriel Andreescu, “Political Manipulation at Its Best,” Transition, 1 December 1995, pp. 18–23; Dunay, “Hungary,” pp. 67–71.

Szabo, “‘Historic Reconciliation’ Awakens Old Disputes,” pp. 46–50.

Ibid., p. 49.

Ibid.

See Zsofia Szilagyi, “Hungarian Minority Summit Causes Uproar in Slovakia and Romania,” Transition, Vol. 2, No. 18, 6 September 1996, pp. 45–48.

Shafir, “A Possible Light at the End of the Tunnel,” p. 29.

See Treaty of Understanding, Cooperation and Good Neighborliness between Romania and the Republic of Hungary (unofficial translation, 1996), p. 13.

Shafir, “A Possible Light at the End of the Tunnel,” p. 30.

Arpad Goncz, “The Least Expensive Way to Guarantee Security,” Transitions, December 1997, Vol. 4, No. 12, pp. 15–18.

Ella Veres, “The Mixed Towns of Transylvania,” Transitions, December 1997, Vol. 4, No. 12, pp. 31–35.

Miklos Haraszti, “Young Bloods,” Transitions, July 1998 Vol. 5, No. 7, pp. 48–53.

A good description and advocacy of this aspect of the Albanian viewpoint can be found in Elez Biberaj, Albania in Transition. The Rocky Road to Democracy (Boulder: Westview Press, 1998).

One of the most recent analyses on the problem of Serb nationalism comes from Lenard J. Cohen, “Nationalism, the Kosovo Crisis, and Political Change in Serbia,” East European Studies Newsletter, November–December 1998, pp. 5–6.

See James Pettifer, “The Albanian Upheaval: Kleptocracy and the Post‐communist State,” Labour Focus on Eastern Europe, No. 57, 1997, pp. 4–12.

See Nedeva, “Kosovo/a: Different Perspectives,” p. 119

Miranda Vickers and James Pettifer, Albania: From Anarchy to a Balkan Identity (New York: New York University Press, 1997), p. 151.

Biberaj, Albania in Transition, pp. 230–232, 238–239.

For more on this see Nedeva, “Kosovo/a: Different Perspectives,” pp. 124–125; Vickers and Pettifer, Albania, pp. 154–156.

A quote after Biberaj, Albania in Transition, p. 251.

A quote after Biberaj, Albania in Transition, p. 240.

Ibid.

Vickers and Pettifer, Albania, p. 178.

Fabian Schmidt, “Kosovo Shakes Albania,” Transitions, March 1998, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 50–57.

“New Faces in Skopje” (Skopje and Brussels: International Crises Group, Macedonia 1999), p. 35.

Macedonia: The Politics of Ethnicity and Conflict in Macedonia, p. 17.

For more details see Albania Crisis Briefing (Tirana: International Crisis Group 1998); Miranda Vickers, “The Mob Behind, the Cliffs Bellow,” Transitions, November 1998.

Washington Post, 6 May 1999, p. A24.

See War in the Balkans: Consequences of the Kosovo Conflict and Future Options for Kosovo and the Region (Brussels: International Crises Group, 1999), p. 13.

See Martin Sletzinger, “Kosovo from the Albanian Perspective,” news report about the noon discussion “The Impact of Regional Crises on Albania's Transition to Democracy,” East European Studies, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, 28 April 1999.

For more on the consequences of the ethnic cleansing and the impact of Albanian refugees on the neighboring states and territories see War in the Balkans, pp. 2–28; Macedonia Update: Challenges and Choices for the New Government (Skopje and Brussels: International Crisis Group, 1999), pp. 12–15.

For more on the last elections in Macedonia see James Pettifer, “Macedonia Rejects Milosevic,” World Today, Vol. 55, No. 1, 1999; Gordana Icevska, “Macedonians Oust Longtime Government,” Transitions, December 1998, Vol. 5, No. 12, pp. 10–11; Peace Watch, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1998, p. 5.

See I. Gambles, ed., A Lasting Peace in Central Europe? (Brussels: West European Union, 1995).

Michael Dobbs, “A Conflict as Old as the Century,” Washington Post, 5 April 1999, p. A 12. The author provides a very good comparison and analysis of the current political behavior of Hungary and Serbia.

Carl Bildt, “A ‘European Deal’ for the Balkans,” Peace Watch, Vol. 5, No. 3, 1999, p. 3.

See for example, John R. Lampe, Ronald H. Linden, “Security Problems and Economic Prospects in Southeastern Europe,” East European Studies, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC, Meeting Report No 108, May 1995.

See the analysis on that issue in Symeon Giannakos, “A Balkan Network of Interdependence,” Transition, May 1996, Vol. 2. No. 9, pp. 58–59, 64.

Democracy in Romania. Assessment Mission Report (Stockholm: Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 1997), p. 135.

In the case of the Balkans the term was introduced by James Pettifer, “The Rise of the Kleftocracy,” World Today, January 1997, pp. 13–15; James Pettifer, “The Albanian Upheaval,” p. 4.

John Stremlau and Francisco R. Sagasti, “Preventing Deadly Conflict. Does the World Bank Have A Role?” Report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Carnegie Corporation of New York, 1998, p. 8.