Astana's privatised independence: private and national interests in the foreign policy of Nursultan Nazarbayev

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Notes

Aldar Kusainov, “Wheels set in motion for dynastic transition in Kazakhstan,” Eurasia Insight, Vol. 16 September 2003, at http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav091603.shtml; Peter Marsh, “Long‐serving Kazakh leader to stand again,” Financial Times, 3 July 2003.

Interview with Masanov in Novaya Gazeta, 12/4‐98

Seymour M. Hersh, “The price for oil – What was Mobil up to in Kazakhstan and Russia,” The New Yorker, 9 July 2001.

Mukhametzhan Adilov, “Nikto ne dast nam izbavlenia – ni tsar, ni bog I ne geroi” (Nobody will give us redemption – neither a tsar nor God nor any hero), Respublika, 31 January 2003.

Sally N. Cummings, Understanding Politics in Kazakhstan, DEMSTAR Research Report No. 10, Department of Political Science, University of Aarhus, November 2002.

For examples here, see: Robert Legvold, 2003, “U.S. Policy Toward Kazakhstan” in Legvold, ed., Thinking Strategically—The Major Powers, Kazakhstan, and the Central Asian Nexus (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press), pp. 88–90; Roy Allison, “The Military and Political Security Landscape in Russia and the South,” in Rajan Menon, Yuri E. Fedorov and Ghia Nodia, eds. Russia, The Caucasus and Central Asia—The 21^st Century Security Environment (EastWest Institute, Armonk: M.E. Sharpe, 1999), pp. 32–33.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and James Lee Ray, “The National Interest Versus Individual Ambition: Two Level Games and International Conflict,” paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 30 August–2 September 2001, p. 14.

See Steven R. David, Choosing Sides: Alignment and Realignment in the Third World (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1991). See also Steven R. David, 1991, “Explaining Third World Alignment,” World Politics, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 233–257.

On this, see Lionel Orchard and Hugh Stretton, “Public Choice,” Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 21, 1997, pp. 409–430.

See, for example Konstantin Syroezhkin, “Kazakhstan's security policy in the Caspian Sea region,” in Gennady Chufrin, ed. The Security of the Caspian Sea Region (SIPRI, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001), pp. 212–230. Syroezhkin claims that Nazarbayev's regime should be understood as “an instrument of power for the ruling elite, that is, a group of individuals brought together by their corporate interests who are interested in creating the conditions to ensure their personal security and the security of their closest entourage,” and he goes on to say that “It is in this narrow sense that the national security strategy of Kazakhstan and the consequences of the social, economic and political reforms are to be understood.” p. 220.

Rodney Barker, Legitimating Identities—The Self‐Presentation of Rulers and Subjects (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001), pp. 2–3.

Ibid., p. 17.

For a recent discussion of this point, see Arkadii Dubnov, “Nazarbayev igraiet v piatnashki” (Nazarbayev is playing tag), Vremia Nvostei, 12 March 2004.

For a short history of opposition in Kazakhstan, see Aldar Kusainov, “Kazakhstan's critical choice,” Eurasianet, Vol. 13, January 2003, at http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/rights/areticles/eav011303_pr.shtml

Ibid.

See quotations by Baltash Tursunbayev in Respublica, 17 January 2002, and A Kurtov, “Kakogo ty rodu‐plemeni” (Who are you by tribe), Vek, Vol. 16 January 1998.

Bakhytzhamal Bekturganova and Gulnara Abdykasymova, “Za kulisami kadrovykh reshenii” (Behind the Curtains of Cadre Decisions), Respublika, 9 April 2003.

Based on the 1989 census, there are about 2 million Kazakhs belonging to the Greater Horde, 3 million to the Middle Horde, and 1.5 Million to the Younger Horde. See A. Kurtov, “Kakogo ty rodu‐plemeni” (Who are you by tribe), Vek, Vol. 16, January 1998.

For good analysis on the Kazakh hordes in contemporary Kazakhstan, see Edward Schatz, “The politics of multiple identities: Lineage and ethnicity in Kazakhstan,” Europe‐Asia Studies, Vol. 52, No. 3, May 2000, pp. 489–506, and “Conflict and Meta‐Conflict Over Clans in Post‐Soviet Kazakhstan,” paper presented at the American Political Association meeting, San Francisco, August 2001.

Mukhametzhan Adilov, “Protivostayanie” (Confrontation), Respublika, 8 November 2002.

On the parasitic behaviour of the old nomenclatura, see Ruslan Sartakov, “Kazakhstanskiy noyabr” (Kzakhstanian November), Centran‐Analytika, 23 December 2002, at http://www.centran.ru/cgi‐bin/index.pl?text_id=3619&all=yes

Aygul Omarova, “Vtoroe vkhozhdenie vo vlast, ili popytka konstruktivnogo dialoga putem sotrudnichestvo?” (Second ascension to power, or an attempt at constructive dialogue through cooperation), Navigator, 9 January 2003, at http://www.navigator.kz/articles/4print.php?artid=2319; Gulzhan Ergalieva, “Provalniy sezon v teatre marionetok,” (A failed season in the marionette theatre), Assandi‐Times, No. 11, at http://www.freeas.org/bin/page.php?id=482&action=print.

Dzhandosov quoted in Aygul Omarova, “U Ak Zhol net drugoy alternativy, kak stat veduschey pertiyey strany” (Ak Zhol has no choice but to become the leading party in the country), Navigator, 16 October 2002.

Zhanna Bolatova and Erik Zhunusov, “Materiya I ideally” (Matter and ideals), Delovaya Nedelya, No. 15, 1998.

Askhat Sharipzhanov, “God Nursultana v Rossii” (The year of Nursultan in Russia), Soldat, No. 6, 24 February 2003.

“Na politicheskom perekrestke ǐeuropy, “Sob‐Info, 20 December 2002, at http://eurasia.org.ru/cgi‐bin/datacgi/database.cgi?file=News&report=SingleArticleRU &ArticleID=0003101

Ibid.

Akezhan Kazhegeldin, “Kazakhstan: Roots of Political crises,” at http//iicas.org/English/publ_24_06_02.htm

Yurii Kozlov, “Posledniy vogon na zapad” (Last train to the West), Nezevisimaya Gazeta, 10 November 2000.

Galymzhan Zhakiyanov, “Kuda my idem?” (Where do we go?), statement read aloud at the DCK May 2002 political council, at http://www.zhakiyanov.info/inner.php? menuid=3&show=21

Vitaliy Khlyupin and A. Grozin, “Kochevye elity postsovyetskoy Azii” (Nomad elites of post‐Soviet Asia), Aziya I Afrika Segodnya, No. 4, 2001, on the Internet at http://iicas.org/articles/library/libr_rus_23_05_01_kz.htm

Masanov quoted in Nygmet Ibadildin, “Sdali. I dalshe budut sdavat” (They betrayed, and will betray again), Vremya Po Grinvichu, 10 August 2001.

Kazegeldin's address to the leaders of DCK, 4 October 2002, p. 3, at http://forumkz.org/article/en_forum_10_10_02.htm

Sanobar Shermatova, “Krepche chem. Kalashnikov” (Stronger than the Kalashnikov), Moskovskie Novosti, 23 April 2004.

Gennadii Sysoev, “Tsena voprosa” (The price of the question), Kommersant, 2 February 2004.

Andreii Chebotaryev, “Spetsifika gosudarstvennoi kadrovoi politiki v Kazakhstane” (Particularities of the cadre policy in Kazakhstan), in E. Karin and G. Ileuovaia, eds. Politicheskie Elity Tsentralnoi Azii, The International Center of Social & Political Research, the Central Asian Agency of Political Research, Tel‐Aviv, 2001, pp. 32–37.

See, Maksim Mikhailichenko, “Eksportnyi kontrol: ot dela Sapsia do soglashenia s SSHA” (Eksport control: from Saps's business to agreement with the USA), Delovaia Nedelia, No. 6, 1997.

Nuclear Threat Initiative: Kazakhstan: Export Control Overview, at http://www.nti.org/db/nisprofs/kazakst/excon/overview.htm.

Sergei Gavrichev, “Iran ili Kitai?” (Iran or China?), RusEnergy.com, 3 June 2002, at http://www.rusenergy.com/caspianregion/a03062002.htm

“U.S. moves to foil Iran pipeline – Kazakhs seek loans for alternate routs,” Huston Cronicle, 19 November 1997.

Ivan Gavrichev, “Semeiniy klan Nursultana Nazarbaieva ustanovil polniy kontrol nad neftegazovoi otrasliu Kazakhstana” (The family clan of Nursultan Nazarbayev has established full control over the oil and gas industry in Kazakhstan), RusEnergy.com, 18 May 2001, at http://www.rusenergy.com/caspianregion/a18052001.htm

Ibid.

On this point see chapter 2 in Martha Brill Olcott, Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2002).

According to the CIA 2003 World Fact Book 30% of the population is Russian and 3.7% is Ukrainian. It is likely that at least some of the Ukrainians would identify with the Russians. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/kz.html.#People

Interview with Rustem Lebekov in RBC Daily, 21 April 2004, on the Internet at http://www.rbcdaily.ru/news/policy/index.shtml?2004/04/21/54036

Sagyndyk Mendybaev, Nikolai Fomin and Viktor Shelgunov. 2000. Kak Razvorovali Strany – Semia Nazarbaievykh: Istoki blagosostoiania (How They Robbed the Country – The Nazarbayev family: sources of wealth), ch. 12, p. 1, full text at http://eurasia.org.ru/archive/family/11.html

Mukhametzhan Adilov, “Kak prorubit okno v Evropu?” (How to open a window to Europe?), Rezpublika, 18 April 2003.

On this, see Nurakhmet Kenzheev, “Dvoinoi konfuz” (Double confusion), Rezpublika, 12 September 2003.

Valeriy Vyzhutovich, “Salyam investory” (Peace to the investors), Izvestia, 3 July 1997.

Ibid.

Nikolay Fomin, Kazhegeldin i Kreml, (Kazhegeldin and the Kremlin), at http://eurasia.org.ru/archive/kremlin/01.html

See, for example: P. Gamellin, “Nursultan Nazarbayev: Popytka Proryva” (Nursultan Nazarbayev: attempt to break through), Ekspert, 24 November 1997; A.V. Grozin and V.H. Khliupin, “Borba za Neft Prikaspiiskogo Regiona – Posledniaia Geopoliticheskaia Bitva XX Veka” (The Battle for Caspian Oil – The Last Geopolitical Battle of the 20th century), in the book Rezpublika Kazakhstan: Geopoliticheskie Ocherki at: http://eurasia.org.ru/archive/book/AIBOL10.htm

David Ignatius, “Political Oil Slick,” Washington Post, 30 July 2000.

US Foreign Direct Investment in Kazakhstan 1997–2000: 1997: 208.1 mln.USD; 1998: 399.3 mln. USD; 1999: 905.8 mln. USD; and 2000: 993.5 mln. USD. Source: Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan on Investments, at http://www.kazakhstan‐gateway.kz/investments/fdistatistics.htm

Arthur Zapruder, “Poslednii parad Nursultana Nazarbayeva” (The last parade of Nursultan Nazarbayev), IATS Evrasia, 25 December 1999, at http://eurasia.org.ru/archive/1999/top5/12_25_last_parad.html