Estimating Petroleum Exergy Production and Consumption Using a Simulated Annealing Approach

This study deals with the development of the petroleum exergy production and consumption relations in order to better analyze exergy values and predict the future projections using the simulated annealing (SA) approach, which is a powerful technique used to solve many optimization problems. The exergy estimation is performed based on the indicators of gross domestic product (GDP) and the percentage of vehicle ownership figures in Turkey, which is given as an illustrative example. The so-called SA exergy production and consumption (SAPEX) model is developed, while the exergy values obtained using the SAPEX model are also compared with those using the genetic algorithm (GA) approach. It is determined that the SAPEX model developed predicts the exergy values better than the GA model. It may be concluded that the models proposed here can be used as an alternative solution and estimation technique to available estimation techniques in predicting the future energy and exergy utilization values of countries. This study is also expected to give a new direction to engineers, scientists, and policy makers in implementing energy planning studies and in dictating the energy strategies as a potential tool.

Keywords:

• energy demand
• energy modeling
• energy planning
• exergy
• exergy modeling
• future projections
• genetic algorithm
• simulated annealing approach
• Turkey