A Critical Review of the Physics and Statistics of Condoms and their Role in Individual versus Societal Survival of the AIDS Epidemic

Abstract

Condom failure rates for HIV are substantially greater than for pregnancy, even for highly motivated people who may reach the limit set by allowed manufacturing imperfections. This makes condoms ineffective for lifelong protection from HIV-infected sexual partners; therefore, in general, condoms provide inadequate risk reduction for the individual. Nevertheless, they are sufficiently effective that if everyone used condoms, the AIDS epidemic would stop. Quantitative public health goals to reduce the “reproductive rate” of HIV from an estimated 4–12 people infected per infected person to below 1 are needed. Government and scientific testing of condoms could be improved statistically and by utilizing relevant physics.