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Abstract
In 2019, Thailand represents the case of an Asian country overshadowed by authoritarian forces, though it has time and again experienced attempts at democratization. This paper argues that democracy remains deficient in Thailand because, though there have been enormous advances in terms of the economy, social improvements and state stability, political space remains elusive and dominated by the monarchy and military. State formation in Thailand is a function of how entrenched social stratification has been reflected in a highly skewed distribution of economic resources. The paper asks the following five questions: First, why has Thailand, which appears to have become relatively strong in terms of economic and political stability, been unable to achieve democracy? Second, what has been the evolution of democracy versus authoritarianism in Thailand? Third, how have the linkages among state structures, economic relations and societal institutions evolved across time in Thailand? Fourth, what are the main features of their historical development today and how have these (as conditioned by domestic and international factors) affected Thailand’s political conditions? Fifth, what is the likely future of Thai democracy?
Notes
1 McCargo, Duncan, “Network monarchy and legitimacy crises in Thailand,” The Pacific Review, 18, no. 4 (2005): 499–519.
2 D. Nardi, “Insitutions: Judiciary,” New Mandala, July 12, 2010, http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/07/12/thai-institutions-judiciary/.
3 Ministry of Defence (2008) Defence of Thailand (White Paper). Bangkok: Ministry of Defence, pp.27-28.
4 Paul Chambers, “Economic Guidance and Contestation: An Analysis of Thailand’s Evolving Trajectory of Development,” Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs 32, no 1 (2013).
5 Robert Looney, “Thaksinomics: A New Asian Paradigm?,” The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies 29, no. 1, Spring (2004): 71.
6 Paul Chambers, and Napisa Waitoolkiat, “The Resilience of Monarchized Military in Thailand,” Journal of Contemporary Asia 46, no. 3 (2016): 4. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00472336.2016.1161060?journalCode=rjoc20.
7 K. Thelen and S. Steinmo, “Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Politics, in Structuring Politics: Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Analysis, ed. S. Steinmo, K. Thelen, and F. Longstreth (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992), 9.
8 See K. Thelen, and S. Steinmo, 1992; Pierson, 2000, 251–67; Pierson, 2004; Mahoney, James, Rueschmeyer, Dietrich, eds., 2003; P. Pierson, and T. Skocpol, 2002.
9 J. Mahoney, and K. Thelen, “A Theory of Gradual Institutional Change,” in Explaining Institutional Change: Ambiguity, Agency and Power (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), 18.
10 Paul Pierson, Politics in Time (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004).
11 R. B. Collier and D. Collier, Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement and Regime Dynamics in Latin America (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991).
12 Margaret Levi, “A Model, a Method, and a Map: Rational Choice in Comparative and Historical Analysis,” in Comparative Politics: Rationality, Culture, and Structure, ed. Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997), 28.
13 Scott Page, “Path Dependence,” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 1 (2006): 87.
14 David Wilson, Politics in Thailand (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1962), 173.
15 Kunio Yoshihara. The Rise of Ersatz Capitalism in Southeast Asia (Singapore: Oxford University Press, 1988).
16 Fred Riggs, Thailand: The Modernization of a Bureaucratic Polity (Honolulu: East-West Center Press, 1966), 396.
17 Kevin Hewison, “Thailand’s Capitalism: The Impact of the Economic Crisis,” UNEAC Asia Papers, no. 1 (1999), 22–3.
18 Robert J. Muscat, The Fifth Tiger: A Study of Thai Development Policy (Helsinki, Finland: The United Nations University Press, 1994), 126.
19 Pasuk Pongpaichit and Chris Baker, Thailand: Economy and Politics (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1995), 354.
20 Chai-anan Samudavanija, “The Military, Bureaucracy, and Globalization,” in Political Change in Thailand, ed. Kevin Hewison (London: Routledge, 1997).
21 Andrew Walker, Thailand’s Political Peasants: Power in the Modern Rural Economy (Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press, 2012), 44.
22 Chris Baker and Pasuk Phongpaichit, A History of Thailand (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005), 254.
23 Looney (2004), 72.
24 Pravit Rojanaphruk, “Army Comeback through Soft, Silent Coup”, The Nation, December 24, 2008, http://www.nationmultimedia.com.
25 Associated Press, “Thousands Mark ‘Red Shirt’ Crackdown in Bangkok,” NewsOK, May 19, 2012, http://newsok.com/article/feed/384077.
26 Central Intelligence Agency, “The World Factbook,” 2017, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/th.html.
27 Naruemon Thabchumpon, Southeast Asian Studies 5, no. 1 (April 2016), https://englishkyoto-seas.org/2016/04/vol-5-no-1-naruemon/.
28 Ibid.
29 Pravit Rojanaphruk, “Unite to Defend Press Freedom Before it’s Too Late,” Khaosod, April 1, 2017, http://www.khaosodenglish.com/opinion/2017/04/01/unite-defend-press-freedom-late/.
30 Napisa Waitoolkiat and Paul Chambers, “Arch-Royalist Rent: The Political Economy of the Military in Thailand,” in Khaki Capital: The Political Economy of the Military in Southeast Asia, ed. Paul Chambers and Napisa Waitoolkiat (Copenhagen: NIAS, 2017), 63.
31 See Pravit Rojanaphruk, “Junta Quashes Labor Movement Despite Role in 2014 Protests,” 26 May, 2016, http://www.khaosodenglish.com/life/2016/01/26/1453779368/.
32 International Monetary Fund, “IMF Datamapper,” http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD.
33 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), “Thailand,” Human Development Report 2016, 2017, hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/THA.pdf.
34 Ivan Briscoe, “The Proliferation of the ‘Parallel State’” (Madrid: FRIDE, October, 2008), 6–8, 12–16.
Working Paper 71, http://fride.org/descarga/WP71_Paralell_state_ENG_oct08.pdf.
35 See Paul Chambers, Napisa Waitoolkiat, “The Resilience of Monarchized Military in Thailand,” Journal of Contemporary Asia 46, no. 3 (2016), 425–44. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00472336.2016.1161060?journalCode=rjoc20.
36 Ukrist Pathmanand, “A Different Coup d'etat”, Journal of Contemporary Asia 38, no. 1, February (2008): 129–30.
37 Paul Chambers, “Introduction,” in Knights of the Realm: Thailand’s Military and Police, Then and Now, ed. Paul Chambers (Bangkok: White Lotus Press, 2013), viii.
38 Kingdom of Thailand, “Constitution (Interim),” Constituteproject.org (Translated by Prakorn Nilprapunt), July 22, 2014, https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Thailand_2014.pdf?lang=en.
39 Authors calculations, based upon Parliament of Thailand (Senate), “Members of the National Legislative Assembly,” http://www.senate.go.th/w3c/senate/senator.php?url=home&term_id=18.
40 BBC, “Thai King Takes Control of Some $30bn Crown Assets,” June 16, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44507590.
41 See David Streckfuss, Truth on Trial in Thailand: Defamation, Treason, and Lèse-Majesté (Routledge, 2010).
42 Office of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (ONBTC), “NBTC Committee History,” 2017. http://www.nbtc.go.th/About/Committee/CommitteeProfile54-(1).aspx.
43 Committee to Protect Journalists, “Cyber security bill threatens media freedom in Thailand,” IFEX, January 22, 2015, https://www.ifex.org/thailand/2015/01/22/cyber_security_bill/.
44 Suluck Lamubol, “Military orders HE commission to monitor students,” University World News, June 27, 2014, http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20140627122717424.
45 BBC News, “Thai Police Raid Dhammakaya Temple in Hunt for Wanted Monk,” February 16, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38989424.
46 Reuters, “Numbers Game: How Thailand’s Election System Favors Pro-Army Parties.” March 21, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-election-rules-explainer/numbers-game-how-thailands-election-system-favors-pro-army-parties-idUSKCN1R20OV.
47 Kas Chanwanpen, “Parties Accuse EC of Bias in Constituency Mapping,” The Nation, November 30, 2018, http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30359551.
48 Al-Jazeera, “Military Government Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha Elected Thai MP,” June 6, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/military-government-chief-prayuth-chan-ocha-elected-thai-pm-190605173837759.html.
49 Teeranai Charuvastra, “Prayuth Sorry for Cabinet In-fighting.” Khaosod, July 1, 2019, http://www.khaosodenglish.com/politics/2019/07/01/prayuth-sorry-for-cabinet-infighting/.
50 Prachatai, Timeline: Struggle for democracy of 14 embattled anti-junta activists, June 30, 2014, http.s://prachatai.com/english/node/5226.