A segmented generalized Markov regime-switching model with its application in financial time series data

ABSTRACT

Movements of equity indices are very important information for an investment decision. Empirical studies illustrate that the movements switch among different regimes. The Markov regime-switching model has important applications to such analysis. However, parameters estimated under normality assumption might not be stable and the corresponding change-point detection algorithm might face some challenges when either the error distribution is heavy-tailed or observed data contain outliers. In this paper, we relax the normality assumption and propose a generalized Markov regime-switching (GMRS) model. We propose a GMRS model based change-point detection algorithm, which is tested on both simulation data and Hang Seng monthly index. Simulation studies show that this algorithm can improve the accuracy of identifying change-points when either the error distribution is heavy-tailed or observed data contain outliers. It is also evident that the identified change-points on Hang Seng monthly index data match the observed market behaviours.

KEYWORDS:

• Change-point detection algorithm
• log-returns
• Markov process
• maximum likelihood estimation
• generalized Markov regime-switching model
• stock market index

2010 MATHEMATICS SUBJECT CLASSIFICATIONS:

• 60J22
• 62C12
• 65C40

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [RGPIN-2017-05720,RGPIN-2018-05981].