Media effect: correlation between press trends and election results

Abstract

This study measures political bias exhibited in the top four Indian English newspapers during the 2014 elections in India. It analysed news articles on the top contesting national parties published from April 7–May 12, 2014. A strong-positive correlation was found to exist between the overall press bias and election results. Furthermore, readership was found to have a moderating effect on the positive relationship between bias and votes. While the four newspapers had varying amounts of influence on the voting preference of the masses, their political leniencies were found to be inter-correlated. Finally, a model is built to predict the probable vote share by analysing political bias in the popular press – with an accuracy of 90.2%.

Keywords:

• Indian election
• newspapers
• media content analysis
• press bias
• media effect
• poll prediction
• direct effects

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Francis P. Barclay

Francis P. Barclay and Anusha Venkat are doctoral scholars of the Department of Mass Communication and Journalism, PSG College of Arts and Science, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India. C. Pichandy, Ph.D., is the Head of the Department of Communication, PSG College of Arts and Science, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India.