https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2836-4765
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Abstract
This study examined how comments about Kazakhstan’s 2019 and 2022 presidential elections posted on Tengrinews, one of the most commonly used news websites in Kazakhstan, reflected public sentiment toward the elections after two political flashpoints: Nazarbayev’s resignation and the January 2022 protests (known as Bloody January - Qandy Qantar). In particular, the study seeks an answer to the question, “How has public sentiment changed between 9 April 2019 and 25 June 2019, as well as between 20 September 2022 and 21 November 2022?” In this paper, we applied a content analysis of all user-generated comments (n = 3,147) to identify Kazakhstani people’s mood through the lenses of cues given in comments. The method demonstrates that people were most concerned about presidential nominations and candidates, election costs, protests, and social problems, and showed some hope for change. The results also demonstrate that Kazakhstanis tend to use sarcastic language and indicate the performative nature of the country’s elections. Based on comparative analysis, we confirm that political flashpoints significantly affect citizens’ sentiments, even regarding topics such as protests.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 The first President of Kazakhstan, who served between 1991 and 2019.
2 Government procurement resource.
3 Approximately USD 68,000.
4 Russian IT company that provides social media and website analysis services for the Russian and CIS markets.
5 The 2022 Kazakh unrest. See Kudaibergenova and Laruelle (Citation2022) for more details.
6 This is an update of the state model.
7 It is an image of the future of the country as a whole. Please see Kumenov (Citation2022) for more details.
8 According to the Democracy Index, since 2006 Kazakhstan has been annually recognized as a country with an authoritarian regime (Economist Intelligence, n.Citationd.). Taking into account the study by Toepfl and Litvinenko, who studied how citizens of three authoritarian countries - Turkmenistan (uncritical model), Azerbaijan (policy-critical model) and Russia (leadership-critical model) comment on the news, Kazakhstan can be attributed to the second model of authoritarian media systems - policy - critical along with Azerbaijan. In this context, the public can widely criticize the lower institutions and officials of the regime, but at the same time the president and his closest associates remain strictly excluded from criticism.
9 Translation of the word ‘election’ from Kazakh into English.
10 Translation of the word ‘elections’ from Russian into English.
11 Snap presidential elections are called by the decision of the President of the Republic and are held within two months from the date of their appointment. This new article 51-1 of the Constitutional Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan on Elections was added on 3 February, 2011. Election campaigns start from the end of the term for registration of candidates and end at midnight on the day preceding election day. (Constitutional Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan on Elections, 2023).
12 The elections were held on 9 June 2019 and 20 November 2022.
13 All usernames, dates, and times are given exactly as they appear on the Tengrinews website.
14 Internet meme (2013) of the Minister of Labour and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan - Serik Abdenov.
15 USD 25,456,632.
16 For comparison, for the last presidential snap elections in January 2021, Kyrgyzstan allocated KGS 137,3 million (Kamchybekova, Citation2020), which is USD 1,568,820.
17 In 1991, 1999, 2005, 2011, and 2015.
18 USD 1,376.
19 This is confirmed by the turnout data: according to official data, the turnout in the elections in 2019 was 77.5% (Smayil, Citation2019), and in 2022 only 69.44% (Lykova, Citation2022).
20 See, for example, Tokayev’s Twitter and Instagram accounts, where his administration instantly reacts to local as well as international events (Tokayev, Citation2023a, Citation2023b).
21 Kazakh Service of Radio Free/Radio Liberty.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Yerkebulan Sairambay
Yerkebulan Sairambay received his PhD in sociology from the University of Cambridge in 2022. He is currently a research fellow and assistant professor at Suleyman Demirel University (Kaskelen, Kazakhstan). His research explores political participation, new media, civil society, and democratization with a particular focus on the countries of postcommunist Europe and former Soviet Union. The results of Sairambay’s research have been published in Central Asian Survey, Slavonica, Studies of Transition States and Societies, Human Affairs, Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, Politics in Central Europe, and Laboratorium: Russian Review of Social Research.
Assel Kamza
Assel Kamza is an independent scholar from Almaty. She received a master’s degree in international multimedia journalism from Newcastle University, England, and a PhD degree in media and cultural policy from University of Glasgow. Her thesis Kazakh cinema and the nation: a critical analysis investigated film policy in transition. The study provides an assessment of Kazakh cinema production after the adoption of the Cinema Law (2019) and the Eurasia International Film Festival (EurIFF) within a nation-building context. Assel Kamza’s research interests include Kazakh cinema, film festival studies, media and communication, film policy in Kazakhstan, cinematic nation building, and media and branding.
Yessengul Kap
Yessengul Kap is a senior lecturer at Suleyman Demirel University, candidate of philology sciences, (KazNU, Kazakhstan), MA (International and Multimedia Journalism, Newcastle University). Yessengul Kap is a professional journalist who has worked for about 20 years for many print media outlets, such as Kazakh Yeli, Shalkar, and Turkistan. She organized the first Kazakh online news website, www.tarlan.kz, then managed two news websites (turkystan.kz; minber.kz). She continues to manage her “Minber” Center for Journalism Excellence, organizing around 50 workshops among Kazakh journalists to thrive their professionalism. Her research interests include media ethics, media law, media literacy, and critical discourse analysis.
Bakhtiyar Nurumov
Bakhtiyar Nurumov has been teaching at the Faculty of Law and Social Sciences of Suleyman Demirel University for more than five years. His research interests include television journalism, audio journalism, immersive journalism, and social media. The results of Nurumov’s research have been published in Herald of Journalism (KazNU, Kazakhstan), Moscow University Journalism Bulletin, CAP, and First Monday. He is currently a PhD candidate and is conducting research activities in the field of immersive journalism.