The 2021 Norwegian election

Abstract

The Storting election of September 2021 signalled the end of eight years in office for of the centre-right government led by Premier Erna Solberg. During this period, different constellations of parties had been in power: first the Conservatives and the Progress Party, later the Liberal Party and finally the Christian Democrats joined the coalition. However, due to policy disagreements, particularly with the Liberals and the Christian Democrats, the Progress Party left the coalition in 2020, just a year ahead of the election. Climate and immigration policies were at the core of the disagreements. At the 2021 election, the five centre-left (or red-green) parties won the majority of seats and votes, but did not succeed in establishing a majority government. Instead, the Labour Party and the Centre Party formed a minority government, supported by the Socialist Left Party. The overriding issue at the election was climate and environmental concerns. Somewhat unexpectedly, the Green Party did not fare particularly well at the election, and fell short of the four percent threshold for adjustment seats by the tiniest margin. Data from the Norwegian National Election Study shows that the Greens only received 11 per cent of the climate vote, while more than 60 per cent voted for other red-green parties. Social inequality was also high on the agenda, in particular by left of centre voters. The number of effective parties rose from 5.5 to 6.4, increasing the fractionalisation of the party system, which may be worrying if it continues.

Keywords:

• Election
• Norway
• government formation
• minority cabinet
• political issues

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 Other recent reports in the Elections in Context series include Little (2021), Pilet (2021) and Prosser (2021).

2 Moreover, the skewed geographical distribution of seats has only minor effect on the allocation of seats to the parties. In the 2021 election, only two seats would change party. The Center Party and Patient Focus would lose one seat each, while the Socialist Left Party and the Conservative Party would win one seat each.

3 Patient Focus won the last constituency seat in Finnmark.

4 Before World War II the number of parties was significantly lower than in the 1945 election.

5 Although recent developments linked to the Russian war on Ukraine and energy shortage in Europe, has hiked oil and gas prices. However, the duration of these crises remains to be seen.

6 91 per cent of the voters are satisfied with the way democracy works in Norway.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Bernt Aardal

Bernt Aardal is Professor Emeritus of the Department of Political Science at the University of Oslo. He was principal investigator of the Norwegian National Election Studies (NNES) from 1985 to 2020. His research includes electoral behaviour, public opinion andelectoral systems. [[email protected]]

Johannes Bergh

Johannes Bergh is a Senior Researcher at the Institute of Social Research in Oslo and principal investigator of the Norwegian National Election Studies (NNES) since 2017. His research includes political participation, experimental designs, voting, political behaviour among minorities, electoral systems and democratic innovations. [[email protected]]