Who speaks for manual workers? Unequal congruence in the 2017 German Federal Election

Abstract

The rise of right-wing populist parties in Western democracies has led to a renewed interest in theories concerning class-based voting. It is argued that traditional workers’ parties are increasingly being challenged over the working-class vote by the populist radical right because they are perceived as being too culturally liberal for their own electorate. However, while it is established that the views of traditional parties are often incongruent with those of workers, it is not yet clear whether right-wing populist parties fare any better in this regard. Using many-to-many congruence, this article compares the preferences of different social classes and MPs in the 2017 German Federal Election. Three notable findings emerge. First, opinion gaps vary greatly across issues, and occupational groups do not hold fundamentally different views. Second, there are nonetheless significant congruence gaps at the expense of workers. Third, neither left-wing parties’ MPs nor the right-wing populist AfD MPs provide a good fit for workers’ opinions.

Keywords:

• Representation
• policy congruence
• political parties
• political inequality
• working class

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Although the term ‘left-authoritarian’ can be misleading, I follow the literature cited here and use the term to describe a combination of left-wing economic and conservative cultural positions. In this article, the term does not refer to general authoritarian or anti-democratic attitudes.

2 Results can be found in the online appendix.

3 Although Golder and Stramski (2010) originally recommended using cumulative frequencies, I follow Andeweg (2011) and Schakel and Hakhverdian (2018) by using probability distribution functions.

4 As previously described, I use a bootstrapping technique and work with estimated rather than simple congruence calculations in the following analysis.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Marie Kübler

Marie Kübler is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science, University of Mainz. Her research focuses on political representation. [[email protected]]