Radical right advance and party system change: the 2024 Portuguese snap elections

Abstract

The 2024 general elections triggered an unprecedented shift in the Portuguese party system. The radical right skyrocketed from 12 to 50 MPs precisely as the country celebrated 50 years since the overthrow of a right-wing dictatorship. Corruption scandals prompted snap elections, but the main parties experienced some of their worst results in history. The centre-right witnessed a bittersweet and narrow victory, and in the resounding defeat of the centre-left, there is more than meets the eye. The closely contested election was marked by the radical right’s breakthrough and the breakdown of the de facto two-party system. The driving force behind this party system change seems to be the supply side of party competition. Despite government formation remaining within the realm of conventional formulas, it is unclear whether the cordon sanitaire between mainstream and radical right will falter or damage the chances of executive survival.

Keywords:

• Radical right
• party system
• corruption
• elections
• government formation
• Portugal

Acknowledgements

A substantial part of this work was written during my research stay at the European University Institute in Florence. Earlier versions were presented at a joint workshop of the SPARC and RIGoP research groups of ICS-ULisbon, as well as at the School of Applied Digital Technologies of Iscte-University Institute of Lisbon. I am grateful to Jorge M. Fernandes, Pedro C. Magalhães, José Alberto Ferreira, and Joris Alberdingk Thijm for comments and suggestions. Special thanks are extended to the FOXP2 team and Rui Pedro Gomes for their assistance with the social media data, and to Marcelo Camerlo for sharing the ministers’ data.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 For other recent articles in the elections in context series, see Arter (2024), Bernhard (2024) and Vall-Prat and Rodon (2024).

2 Aximage poll, November 2023.

3 https://www.cfp.pt/pt/publicacoes/evolucao-orcamental/evolucao-orcamental-das-administracoes-publicas-em-2022

4 https://www.cfp.pt/uploads/publicacoes_ficheiros/cfp-rel-05-2023_ap2022.pdf

5 http://www.gep.mtsss.gov.pt/documents/10182/80545/ant_qualificacoes2021.pdf/3cb16178-1240-47cb-8805-8eae4d939344

6 https://www.pordata.pt/portugal/emigrantes+permanentes+total+e+por+nivel+de+escolaridade+completo+(percentagem)-3794

7 Standard Eurobarometer 100.

8 CESOP-UCP poll, January-February 2024, and Consulmark polls, waves 2–3, February 2024.

9 https://rr.sapo.pt/especial/politica/2024/02/22/debatometro-custo-de-vida-fora-dos-debates-educacao-foi-dos-temas-menos-falados/367769/

10 https://www.publico.pt/2024/02/25/politica/noticia/novos-lideres-trouxeram-maior-audiencia-debates-tv-face-2022-2081603

11 https://observador.pt/2024/02/26/legislativas-debates-em-canal-aberto-com-menos-audiencias-do-que-em-2022/

12 https://expresso.pt/politica/eleicoes/legislativas-2024/2024-02-20-Quase-28-milhoes-de-portugueses-viram-o-debate-entre-Pedro-Nuno-Santos-e-Luis-Montenegro-efaf042f

13 ICS-Iscte poll, May 2024 (Part II).

14 This paragraph summarises the results of Cancela and Magalhães’ analysis, available at https://expresso.pt/politica/eleicoes/legislativas-2024/2024-03-14-As-mulheres-votaram-mais-a-esquerda-e-os-jovens-afastaram-se-dos-partidos-antigos-quem-escolheu-quem-nas-legislativas--37730132

15 ICS-Iscte poll, May 2024 (Part II).

16 https://analiseeleitoral.blogspot.com/2024/03/das-maiores-polemicas-em-torno-da.html

17 The parallel trends assumption is supported (F(1.19) = 0.54, p = 0.471), and the results are robust to the exclusion of each district at a time.

18 ICS-Iscte poll, January–February 2024.

Additional information

Funding

This work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (doctoral grant no. 2020.07270.BD).

Notes on contributors

Hugo Ferrinho Lopes

Hugo Ferrinho Lopes is a PhD candidate at the Institute of Social Sciences, University of Lisbon. His research interests comprise political parties, political representation, elections, political behaviour, and youth in politics. He has published, inter alia, in West European Politics, International Political Science Review, and Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. [[email protected]].